In the long term, joining the EU will surely benefit the Croatian economy. But it is unlikely that Croatia will see big immediate gains. The euro zone is still troubled with an economic crisis. The shrinking imports of the euro-zone market have dealt a heavy blow to Croatia. Croatia has a high dependence on foreign trade with Italy and Slovenia. Its exports to the two euro-zone members accounted for 24.1 percent of its total exports in 2012. But now, the two countries are both deeply mired in the current crisis. Their weak import demands in the coming years are likely to take a toll on Croatian exporters.

After joining the EU, Croatia has to cut ties with the Central European Free Trade Agreement, which means its exports to this market, which accounted for 21 percent of Croatia's total exports in 2012, will be faced with tariffs again. Croatia can make up for its export losses in the EU market in the long term. But because it has already benefited from the EU market since it signed a free trade agreement with the EU in 2002, it cannot achieve remarkable trade growth with other EU members in the short term.

Croatia's labor market is currently uncompetitive, so it could be confronted with the impact of the EU labor market after joining the bloc. A 2012 report of Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, shows that the competitive labor resources of EU members in Central and Eastern Europe could bring Croatia more employment pressure.

One piece of good news for Croatia, at least, is that it might receive 11.7 billion euro ($15.3 billion) of assistance from EU funds to stimulate its economy from 2014 to 2020, accounting for 27 percent of Croatia's GDP in 2012. However, to make the most of the money, Croatia must improve its business environment and address the problem of government corruption. Also, according to EU rules, a country should keep its deficit under 3 percent and total debt at less than 60 percent of GDP in order to receive the bulk of funds. It will be difficult for Croatia to meet this requirement. Additionally, as Croatia has not met EU standards on anti-corruption and its legal system, it will remain under the examination and supervision of the EU and cannot enjoy the full rights of an EU member.

Sino-Croatian cooperation

Croatia has maintained a traditional friendship with China. Sino-Croatian relations have been developing smoothly since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1992. In 2005, the two countries upgraded their ties to a "comprehensive cooperative partnership." In his recently published book, China and the Balkans, former Croatian President Stjepan Mesic asserted that China's peaceful development will not pose any threat to world stability. Croatian politicians' correct understanding of China's foreign policy is very helpful for the two countries to deepen mutual trust.

The two countries also share a long history of economic cooperation. At present, Croatia is China's second largest trading partner in the former Yugoslavia region. As Croatia is currently faced with economic difficulties, it needs huge foreign investment to spur growth in the short run. Chinese enterprises could lend assistance to Croatia and find investment opportunities in the country. Chinese capital is highly needed for tourism infrastructure construction as well as other private sectors in Croatia. In the meantime, as more Chinese people travel abroad, the picturesque landscape of Croatia has become a drawing card that attracts Chinese tourists.

In consideration of the long-term friendship and traditional cooperation between China and the former Yugoslavia region as well as the status change of Croatia after joining the EU, the potential of Sino-Croatian relations will be further exploited under the framework of China-Central and Eastern Europe cooperation.

The author is an associate research fellow with the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

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