Aside from the global financial crisis aftermath, religious differences also helped create the current situation in Syria, said Liu. For now, the Sunnis are controlling nearly all of the Middle East, and hope the Sunni population in Syria can rise to dominate the country. Currently, the ruling class in Syria is composed of the Alawis, a Shiite branch of Islam.
Li Guofu, a senior research fellow with the CIIS, worried that the crisis in Syria could initiate religious conflict between Sunnis and Shiites in the region. The two Islamic sects' attitudes on Syria are very clear. Sunni-controlled governments and parties are supporting the opposition, while Shiite-led governments are opposing sanctions or advocating non-involvement. We cannot ignore the possibility that Syria's crisis may spread to the neighboring region if the situation deteriorates further, Li warned.
Military action is not the solution to this issue, said Liu. Since the West is unlikely to conduct a military strike against Syria, the Syrian opposition is hardly a match for government forces. The Syrian Government, along with its only ally in the region with a Shiite regime, Iran, has their own problems to deal with, so it will be difficult to exterminate the insurgent forces.
Both sides should accept the reality that they cannot defeat each other easily, said Liu, and only then they will come back to the negotiating table to find a political solution.
On July 30, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon reiterated that the UN Supervision Mission in Syria remains a key tool for a peaceful solution to the Syria crisis based on Annan's six-point plan as well as the June 30 Geneva communiqué, which urged all Syrian parties to stop violence and engage in negotiations. The only solution, he affirmed, is a Syrian-led transition that meets the legitimate aspirations of Syrian people.
"I call on all sides to take immediate steps to meet the Security Council requirements, and give Syria the chance it needs to move beyond the violence and onto the path to peace," Ban said.
Liu suggested such negotiations should be held as early as possible. If Al Qaeda becomes fully involved in the Syria situation, the entire region will see even bigger troubles, said Liu.
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