Liu added, "I personally believe government forces still dominate Aleppo and the Assad administration can control the country as a whole. The opposition wants to make Aleppo their base camp, similar to Benghazi in Libya before Muammar Gaddafi was defeated. But it is not quite possible in the short run." Liu pointed out that differences inside the opposition are too serious to form a powerful leadership. There is no Syrian opposition group that is truly united with other factions, he added.

Yin Gang, a senior research fellow with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, agreed that Syria will remain in a stalemate between government forces and insurgent groups for some time. It is still too early to say which side is going to win, he said, and the decisive battle will not start unless Assad abandons Damascus and retreats to the Latakia mountain area.

Foreign intervention

Chinese observers believe that foreign intervention is making the situation even more complicated. After months of turmoil, Syria has become an arena for diplomatic competition. Western countries, intending to bring down the Assad administration, declared new sanctions against Syria. Some regional countries also offered political, financial and military assistance to the Syrian opposition.

Jia Xiudong, a researcher with the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), criticized Western countries' Syria policy for accelerating and aggravating a civil war. Europe and the United States supported former UN Secretary General and UN-Arab League peace envoy for Syria Kofi Annan's initiative politically, but were inclined to oppose his peace plan, he said.

Disappointed over the lack of progress in the Syrian peace process, Annan said he would step down after his current mandate expires at the end of August.

Moreover, Western countries failed to persuade the opposition to adhere to the ceasefire agreement. "The West's Syria policy only encouraged the opposition and their armed forces' intransigence and sharpened the conflict between the Syrian Government and the opposition," Jia said, warning, "If they refuse to change their Syria policy, there will be more bloodshed, humanitarian disasters and regional turmoil."

Liu said the West will not launch military intervention in Syria anytime soon, adding that it will be difficult to copy the Libya model in Syria.

Syria is known as the heart of the Middle East because it carries different countries' interests due to its geographic location and its political influence in the region. "Once the West launches military strikes against Syria, it will trigger conflicts in the region, which could send the situation totally out of control," Liu warned.

"The Syrian government forces are too strong to be defeated in the near future. If the West cannot fight and win a battle quickly, they will not allow themselves to be dragged into a war that they have no confidence in winning," Liu added.

Furthermore, the United States, which heads the Western countries on the Syria issue, will hold the presidential election in November this year. U.S. President Barack Obama, who wants to win another presidential term, will not jeopardize his reelection by opening fire on a country in the Middle East. Meanwhile, EU members are still struggling with the spreading debt crisis and lack the time, energy or money to conduct a military operation.

"Most importantly, without the UN Security Council's support, the West must consider the consequences of sending troops to Syria without a just cause," Liu said.

A political solution

Liu said in the face of turbulence that was triggered by accumulated domestic disputes, a political solution and peaceful negotiation will be the best and only way out of the current stalemate.

The root of Syria's crisis lies in domestic problems caused by poverty, a poor economy and a growing gap between social classes, Liu pointed out. Like in many other countries in the Middle East, the Assad family has run Syria for decades under the same mechanism. Some Syrians hoped to see some changes after political turmoil swept Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia and Libya. President Assad tried to conduct reforms in the country, but events unfolded too fast for him to implement the reform plan.