As the S&ED continues to mature, it could be further utilized by the United States and China, in conjunction with other dialogue processes, to foster greater understanding and manage differences over other more difficult areas of distrust.
These areas would include Taiwan and human rights, where consensus will remain elusive but the potential for fallout is great. They should also include horizon issues such as cyber security and space, on which cooperation agreed upon fairly recently by the two governments continues to be hampered by mutual suspicions.
All things considered, the success of a high-level dialogue process like the S&ED is gauged not only by what is generated during the few days of intensive talks, but also by how it affects the way both governments manage the bilateral relationship long after the talks conclude.
In large part due to concerted efforts by both sides to ratchet down the harsh rhetoric that became increasingly commonplace last year, Sino-U.S. relations have veered back on track for now. However, potential pitfalls and challenges remain.
With the dust having barely settled on the S&ED, China is already lashing out over Secretary Hillary Clinton's criticism of its human rights record in an interview published during the talks.
Also, the upcoming election season in the United States and leadership transition in China give rise to the real possibility of increased political rhetoric from both sides. In the United States, this would mean greater negative attention on China as a campaign issue, even as certain members of Congress continue to take China to task on issues such as human rights, the value of the renminbi, and trade policies. In China, one might expect stronger statements on the United States from certain individual officials seeking to project greater policy toughness to their domestic constituents.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Pentagon are expected to issue their annual reports to Congress on currency policies and China's military and security developments, respectively. These two reports have been delayed for the second year in a row, reflecting a goodwill gesture by the Obama administration, but their release and that of other reports, such as the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission's annual report in the fall, will likely trigger exchanges of protestations between the two governments, as they have in past years.
And if history is any indicator, military-to-military relations will continue to be susceptible to sudden disruptions over issues such as U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, a key source of contention that will be amplified in the run-up to elections in Taiwan. The true breakthrough of the SSD and other defense exchanges would be to capitalize on this professed new state of military ties and find a better way to manage the military relationship by moving it past its current on-again-off-again nature.
The United States and China have described their relationship as "vital and complex." This relationship cannot be defined by an S&ED or a series of summits alone. Such exchanges, however, can help to create new avenues for trust-building and cooperation, while setting the appropriate tone and approach for both countries to navigate whatever obstacles come their way. The latest round of the S&ED has done just that. It is up to both sides to make the best out of it and move us away from, not back to, the fractious state of affairs in 2010.
The author is a China program associate with the New York-based EastWest Institute
(Viewpoints in this article do not necessarily represent those of Beijing Review) |