Medvedev said it was Georgia that initiated the South Ossetia conflict, which killed at least 2,000, displaced more than 158,000 and caused extensive building damage. Russia's only aim, he said, was to halt the violence, protect civilians and restore peace as soon as possible. Earlier this year, Russia supported a UN Security Council resolution reaffirming Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. In a news conference on August 26, Vitaly Churkin, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, said that Georgia's attack on South Ossetia had created a "new reality," negating the UN resolution. Given this new reality, Russian leaders concluded they had no choice but to intervene.
Medvedev's five principles should be viewed in the context of American unilateralism and the two rounds of NATO enlargement. The honeymoon the United States and Russia enjoyed after the Cold War was brief. Since then they have alternated between cooperation and confrontation, with conflicting strategic interests underlying most disputes.
Chief among these disputes is the U.S.-driven NATO enlargement, which has also contributed to the conflict between Russia and Georgia. Aside from its geostrategic value, Georgia is a key energy route. In 2005, Georgia opened a U.S.-backed oil pipeline that can pump more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, bypassing Russia completely. These perceived assaults on Russian security are a major factor in its foreign policy.
NATO's second enlargement in 2004-which included the Baltic states-put NATO fighter aircraft at Russia's northwest gate. The following year Saakashvili enraged Russia by seeking NATO membership. Russia uses its influence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia to slow down Georgia's pace.
During Putin's presidency, Russia's political situation stabilized, its economy recovered, and it paid off its debt to the Paris Club thanks to a U.S. dollar reserve swollen by rising oil prices. Russia now has the economic strength and military power necessary to stand up to the West, which has not gone unnoticed. At the April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, the alliance decided not to offer Georgia a Membership Action Plan, which is required for countries seeking membership, but assured Georgia in a special communique that its membership would eventually be approved.
The United States has also raised Russia's hackles with its plans to install missile defense equipment in Poland and the Czech Republic. Washington claims the system is a defense against Iran, but Russia is not buying it. When the United States and Poland announced their deal last month, the Russian Government said it would hurt U.S.-Russia relations.
Kosovo is another contentious issue. When Britain, France and other Western countries recognized Kosovo's independence, Russia hinted it would take corresponding action. The military intervention in Georgia showed that Russia has lost patience with what it sees as NATO and the United States "squeezing" Russia's strategic space.
Polls show the Russians want a tough leader. Western observers once believed that Medvedev would be more liberal and easier to deal with than Putin, who envisioned a powerful Russia with its status internationally acknowledged and its security well protected. Now it seems Medvedev shares the same goal. If the West stands in his way, Russia is likely to assert itself with growing strength.
This is not to say, however, that Russia and the West are heading toward another Cold War. Russia wants to avoid a return to Cold War-style confrontation, while Europe's dependence on Russian energy precludes it from taking extreme measures. In an August 26 interview with CNN, Medvedev acknowledged the current disagreements but said it is possible to resolve them. "We would like to have full-value constructive relationships with our Western partners, including with the United States," he said. "But to do so we need a dose of pragmatism and mutual respect."
The Russian president further said that Russia did not want to complicate its relationship with the United States and would be ready to cooperate with the new U.S. president. In the interview, Medvedev managed to express his dissatisfaction with the U.S. incursion into Russia's strategic space while showing respect for the basic principles of international law. In this way, Russia can balance state security interests with diplomatic necessity.
The author is a professor of Russian studies at China Foreign Affairs University |