Most Russians applaud Putin's domestic and foreign policies. Putin has tried to enhance Russia's position as a major power by adopting a hardline stance in conducting a flexible diplomatic strategy based on the country's ample energy resources. He has emphasized Russia's ties with France and Germany, so as to cast a bone of contention between the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

Russia's direction

In February 2000, Putin quoted a well-known saying among Russians: Anyone who does not regret the Soviet Union's disassembly must have a cold heart; but anyone who wants to go back to the Soviet Union must have a dull brain. The saying reflected Putin's ability to know what his people are thinking: Although they have precious memories of the Soviet Union, they don't want to return to the past. And they don't want to change the Constitution either. Therefore, Putin iterated that he was against the suggestion of revising the Constitution.

However, as the Russian people call on Putin to stay with them, he has decided to maintain his influence and keep pushing his country forward. He agreed to be the top nominee of the United Russia party, which showed that he chose to lead the country down a curvy road. As long as there is an interim period where Putin is not president, he will not be in violation of the Constitution and can lead the country again. And if he were to become prime minister-a more practical way back to power-he could implement his administrating strategy. Meanwhile, Putin has named two obviously feasible preconditions for these scenarios: the United Russia party's victory in the December Duma election and the election of a competent new president in March 2008.

Russian observers predict that whoever becomes president will continue Putin's strategy if he is one of Putin's group. Putin's nomination of Zubkov was approved by most of the Duma's councilors, which meant that almost all parties in parliament have great confidence in his strategy.

It is predicted that the 2008 presidential election will go smoothly. Through legislation, a referendum or by amending the constitution, the power distribution between president and prime minister can be clarified, so as to guarantee the orderly operation of the state machine.

Foreign relations

After 2008, Russia's foreign policy will not change much, and Putin's current strategy and policies will last.

Currently, Russian-U.S. relations are thorny. After the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, the United States started seeking antiterrorism support from other big countries, and both Russian-U.S. and Sino-U.S. ties recovered. However, the United States sticks to its unilateral policy and tries to limit Russia. In February, the United States brought forward its antimissile defense system plan, expected to be established in Poland and the Czech Republic, and U.S.-Russian relations became tense again. The bilateral negotiations between the two countries' defense and foreign ministers, known as "2+2" meeting, did not make any progress. Washington is sticking to its own plan instead of sharing Russia's radar system in Azerbaijan for the missile defense project, as Putin suggested. With its growing economic power, Russia's attitude in dealing with foreign affairs is getting tougher.

Russian-EU relations will develop more steadily after 2008. On May 21, 2004, Russia and the EU signed an agreement to support Russia's joining the World Trade Organization. Russia is a big country whose territory covers both Europe and Asia, but Putin has stressed that Russia is a European country in political aspects. Russia also hopes to benefit from the EU's rapid economic development. EU countries have criticized Russia's tough political stance and its disputes on natural gas with Ukraine, but they have to value their ties with Russia, because they must rely on the country's energy resources too. Furthermore, the EU and Russia have some similar stances on international affairs.

The Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership is healthy and will progress smoothly, as the two countries negotiate and form a consensus on international affairs. Their partnership is now a system that guarantees leaders of the two countries exchange views on a regular basis. They also have upgraded their antiterrorism and economic cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's framework. Their bilateral trade volume reached $30 billion in 2006. The two countries expect that in 2010, the number can grow to $60 billion-$80 billion. And their political ties also will be strengthened with economic development.

In March 2007, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Putin signed agreements to cooperate on developing the five provinces in north China and Russia's east Siberia and Far East areas. In recent years, the two countries have increased their energy resource cooperation. After the two countries complete the construction of a natural gas pipeline and implement transportation projects on the border, their economic cooperation will break the current situation of "hot political but lukewarm economic relations." At their meeting earlier this year, Putin promised Hu that his country's policy on China would not change, no matter who becomes president after the 2008 elections.

The author is a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the China Foreign Affairs University