Before stepping down, Blair had reduced British troops in Iraq from 18,000 to 5,500. After taking office, Brown further withdrew 500 British troops from Basra Palace and redeployed them in the British army base near the city's airport on September 2. Brown announced on October 8 that Britain would reduce its troops in south Iraq from 5,500 at the start of September to 4,000 in several months. Brown later said his country would reduce its troops in Iraq to 2,500 by spring 2008. The U.S. Government reacted strongly and said that Britain's decision created a danger that degraded the special relationship between the two countries to a new low.

While enhancing its ties with the United States, the EU keeps some distance from it as well. For example, before Merkel visited the United States after taking office, she criticized the country for maltreating prisoners at the Guantanamo Bay detention camp.

With regard to the negotiations that the United States conducted with Poland and the Czech Republic on setting up an antimissile system, Merkel said publicly that NATO should discuss the matter and reach a consensus on a solution and that Russia should be invited for open discussions. According to European public opinion, deploying anti-missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic has deepened internal disagreements in the EU. Therefore, one could interpret this to mean that Washington harbors an intention to break up the EU, while Europeans harbor strong anti-American sentiments. Such differences of opinion between the United States and the EU also extend to the issues of energy and greenhouse gas emissions reduction.

Nevertheless, it appears that the leadership changes in Germany, France and Britain will improve the EU's relations with the United States, although, they will be limited because the EU seeks to protect its own interests.

Cooling down EU-Russian ties

Russia's relations with its European neighbor countries have fallen to their lowest point since 1991. European counties have criticized Russia for "retreating from democracy" and heading toward "dictatorship." Europe and the United States continue to squeeze Russia's strategic space. They have aggravated friction with Russia over the country's plan to build energy pipelines in the Middle East and the Black Sea and on how to resolve the Kosovo issue. The leadership changes in Germany, France and Britain have not curbed the continuously deteriorating relations. Countering the United States' decision to set up antimissile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia said it would suspend the implementation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and threatened to aim nuclear weapons at Europe again.

The struggle between America and Russia for Europe is becoming heated, while European-Russian relations have hit barriers. Eastern European countries, especially Poland and the Baltic states, have become the mouthpieces of the United States in Europe. In the EU, there are two attitudes toward Russia with New Europe favoring a hardline approach while the majority EU member countries hope to improve relations and enhance cooperation with Russia.

However, in recent years, economic ties between Europe and Russia have developed quickly. From 2000 to 2006, their bilateral trade volume almost doubled, registering $231 billion. About 53 percent of Russia's foreign trade was done with Europe. Europe supplies more than half of Russia's foreign investment.

At the same time, Russia is the EU's biggest exporter of natural gas and its second biggest exporter of petroleum. The EU's reliance on Russian energy keeps increasing. Russia is working with Germany to lay a natural gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea. Russia and Hungary signed an agreement to extend the natural gas pipeline named "Blue Stream" to Turkey. Russia also signed agreements with Bulgaria and Greece to build oil pipelines to the Mediterranean, and with Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to increase the amount of natural gas and petroleum they send to Europe via Russia. These agreements show that Russia is trying to build pipelines that bypass Poland and the three Baltic states, which are diehard opponents of Russia. In doing so, Russia has created difficulties for the American and European plans to export natural gas from the Central Asian countries directly to Europe, bypassing Russia.

This clearly shows that it is in the interests of both Russia and Europe to ameliorate their relations through consultations and negotiations. German public opinion polls indicate that the majority of citizens believe that in the long run, compared to incessant conflicts, peaceful improvement of relations is good to both sides, and the sooner partnership is established the better. The polls also indicate that the majority of Germans believe that Europeans have no reasons for hurrying up. They shall first strengthen solidarity among themselves and then try to conclude a new treaty with Russia patiently.

Future of Sino-European ties

Between the EU and China stands the United States and Russia. Geopolitically, there are no conflicts of interest between China and Europe. Strategically speaking, EU-U.S. relations and EU-Russian relations cannot severely affect Sino-EU ties in any way. Economically speaking, the EU remains China's biggest trade partner.

The leadership changes in Europe will not change the tendency for the two parties to continue to develop their ties. Compared to their predecessors, the new leaders may know less about China and feel less in touch with Chinese culture. With China's fast economic development, Europe increasingly views China as a rival so much so that it has requested that China shoulder greater responsibilities for the world. Given this situation, some leaders pay more attention to the differences in values and take a protectionist attitude toward China when it comes to trade. They will maintain their pressure on China on climate change and African issues.

American and Japanese attitudes also will influence the policymaking of the three European leaders. Merkel's stance on the arms embargo against China is remarkably different from Schroeder's. In March, then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Germany and touched on the arms embargo issue. Merkel explicitly said that Germany's opposition remained unchanged. Recently, in spite of criticism from the Chinese Government, Merkel met the Dalai Lama in Berlin - a step that will negatively influence the growing ties between China and Germany.

Nevertheless, this year has brought a stable and continuous momentum to Sino-EU relations. The two have enhanced their mutual political trust and strengthened their coordination and cooperation on important international issues and regional hot spots. After Merkel took office, the German chancellor and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao exchanged visits last year and initiated a strategic dialogue mechanism. They also have had four telephone talks on thorny issues. In August, Merkel paid a visit to China for the second time in her capacity as chancellor. Brown and Sarkozy also plan to visit China.

Generally speaking, the EU attaches importance to the opportunities created by China's economic development and takes a relatively practical attitude to China so that the Sino-EU comprehensive strategic partnership will be carried forward.

The author is a senior research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies