population. The law said that ships docking at Cuban ports were not allowed to dock at U.S. ports for six months, that foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies were prohibited from trading with Cuba and that sanctions could be applied to other countries that provided assistance to or trade with Cuba. The president said the law was intended to "put the hammer down" on Cuba. Cuban exiles in Miami even thought that Castro was going to step down soon so they could spend Christmas holidays back in Havana two months later.

The Clinton administration continued the policy of "maintaining pressure on the Cuban Government for change." In June 1996, the United States adopted the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act, otherwise known as the Helms-Burton Act. The harsh act banned third countries from selling Cuban goods in the United States. It also barred employees with companies that had investment in or trade relations with Cuba from entering the United States. It allowed Americans whose properties were expropriated by the Cuban Government after the revolution to sue foreign companies that now operated on those properties in Cuba. Moreover, it banned international institutions from extending loans to Cuba. The international community strongly opposed the act. The Clinton administration had to postpone the implementation of the provision on suing foreign companies in U.S. courts for six months on July 16. To date, this provision has been suspended a number of times.

On May 12, 2002, U.S. President Jimmy Carter became the first U.S. president to visit Cuba since 1959. Castro greeted him as soon as his private plane touched down. During his stay in Cuba, Carter visited the Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology in Havana to verify whether Cuba had transferred biotechnology to "rogue states." He met some "dissidents" with the permission of the Cuban Government. He also played baseball with the Cuban president.

"Our two nations have been trapped in a destructive state of belligerence for 42 years, and it is time for us to change our relationship and the way we think and talk about each other," Carter said during a live broadcast on Cuban state television. "Because the United States is the most powerful nation, we should take the first step."

The longest standing embargo

To date, the UN General Assembly has passed 15 resolutions calling on the United States to lift its economic embargo on Cuba. However, the United States has not budged. The U.S. blockade on Cuba, which has lasted nearly half a century, is the longest standing embargo in human history. Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque said at the UN General Assembly on September 26 that the embargo inflicted a heavy loss of $89 billion on the Cuban people.

There is no doubt that the embargo hurts the United States as well. The Cuba Policy Foundation, a U.S.-based non-governmental organization, has highlighted the downside of the embargo with stunning numbers. America's economy is losing up to $1.24 billion a year in agricultural exports because of the embargo, and up to $3.6 billion more a year in related economic output. The American travel sector would gain immediately from an end to the travel ban, with $550 million and the creation of 3,797 jobs in the first year, and nearly $1.9 billion and the creation of 12,000 jobs in the fifth year after ending the ban. As Cuba's energy supply heavily relies on exports, the embargo is costing America's energy sector $2 billion-$3 billion annually. Cuba imports goods worth several billion dollars from dozens of countries each year. The embargo has made it impossible for U.S. products to enter the Cuban market. Florida, the U.S. state nearest to Cuba, suffers the most severe economic losses, which amount to some $1 billion annually, because of the embargo.

Domestic political interests are largely responsible for the United States' long-term hostile policy toward Cuba. American politicians are worried about losing the support of anti-Cuban forces at election time. Also, American presidents are psychologically reluctant to improve relations with Cuba, because they do not want to yield to a Cuban leader that has confronted 10 U.S. presidents.

The United States is keenly aware of the resistance capacity of the Cuban forces. Mired in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States is unwilling and finds it difficult to launch military operations against Cuba. Latin American countries will say no to the United States' use of force against Cuba. Washington has to consider the long-term negative implications of a military invasion on U.S.-Latin America relations.

The United States had devised a detailed plan to topple the Cuban Government even before Castro was hospitalized on July 31 last year. According to the plan, the United States would allocate a huge sum of money to accelerate Cuba's change. It should be noted that the United States believes that in the so-called "post-Castro era," there must not be a "power succession" in Cuba, but a "transition" to democracy. In other words, the United States does not want to see Raúl Castro lead the Cuban people in pursuing socialism as the new Cuban leader.

It is predictable that the United States will not give up its hostile policy toward Cuba. No fundamental changes are expected to take place in U.S.-Cuba relations in the foreseeable future.

The author is deputy director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences