Third, with the Iraq war occupying both terms of his presidency, Bush is concerned about his historical legacy as president. "He doesn't want to leave regret after he leaves the post," Zhang said. "The pullout plan has practical meanings instead of just a signal."

Moreover, critics point out that even if the government did not start withdrawing troops, the U.S. Army would not have enough manpower for rotating tours of duty by next summer and it would have to withdraw soldiers anyway. Thus the Bush administration merely did its forces a favor that cost nothing, according to Xinhua News Agency.

In his address, Bush called the situation in Iraq "critical to the security of the United States" and said that a major part of American forces there would remain. But if the Democrats win the coming presidential election, the next president will plan to withdraw even more troops or risk betraying Americans' trust and losing out on a possible second term, Zhang said. Some military experts believe that if the situation in Iraq can be controlled as Washington hopes, the United States should at least send an army with 500,000 troops, he said. In the meantime, political stability and economic reconstruction will remain at the heart of the Iraq issue, he added.

Political unraveling

The situation in Iraq has not boded well for the country's citizens either. Iraq's main priority is to establish a stable united government to bring general peace to the country, foreign affairs experts said. August was a dark month in Iraq. At least 63 U.S. soldiers were killed, according to the U.S. Defense Department; and more than 1,770 Iraqi civilians died in the violence, according to the Iraqi Government.

By September 16, a total of 3,780 U.S. soldiers had lost their lives in Iraq since the war started, according to U.S. military information. But nearly 1.2 million Iraqis had been killed during that time, more than the 1 million who had lost their lives in Rwanda's genocide, according to a September 16 report in the British newspaper The Observer.

The primary problem in Iraq is that the country's security situation is not improving, one foreign affairs expert said. Li Guofu, a Middle East studies expert at the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), said that reconciliation among Iraqi tribes and religious groups had hardly reached consensus on account of historical reasons.

On August 26, leaders from Iraq's three major political groups - Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds - signed an agreement on some political issues, in which the Shiites, the country's dominant group, made some compromises. For example, the leaders agreed on draft legislation that would lift limitations on former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party joining the public service and army. They also agreed on setting standards to release some detainees held without charge - a key requirement of the Sunnis.

Although the agreement made some progress, experts said that many hot spots, such as oil legislation, constitutional amendments and the issue of militant commandos, had not been discussed, further hindering attempts to reestablish peace in Iraq.

On September 15, anti-U.S. Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said his political party, the second largest component of the ruling Shiite coalition United Iraqi Alliance, would withdraw from the bloc. The reason, he said, was that his party had not been consulted about government decisions. Now, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government is facing its most serous political crisis. Seventeen ministers have resigned from his administration, and none of the remaining 23 is Sunni. The united government is only a shell and faces the near certainty of more conflicts to come.

Li compared post-war Iraq to a broken glass. All the chips and shards are there, but it will be difficult to put them back together.

"The reconstruction of Iraq not only needs to reshape its political structures, but also to redistribute power and interests," Li said. Because every political group is trying to get more benefits, especially those concerning oil, conflicts are inevitable, he added.

Iraq has managed to fix its "hardware" in the form of parliamentary elections and a constitution; however, the country's "software" - harmony among its tribes and religious parties - has yet to be repaired, Li said. In the long run, the entire situation would not be improved, he added. And it would be impossible for Iraq to have another autocratic leader like Saddam to mend the country; if this happened, the Americans' progress in building a democracy would be a joke, he said.

Nevertheless, there is still hope for eventual peace in the war-torn country, said Zhang from the CASS.

"America is also thinking about inviting other international organizations, like the UN and the World Bank, to get in [Iraq], so as to obtain more international resources," he said. Iraq's neighbors and international humanitarian organizations also could get involved and make some contributions to the peace there, he said.