Third, the moves can help promote "de jure Taiwan independence" and raise Taiwan residents' awareness of their Taiwanese identity. As a new Constitution can hardly materialize under the current system, Chen believes a referendum is the best choice to realize "de jure Taiwan independence." In fact, Taiwanese independence forces have long pursued the goal of establishing a new country and formulating a new constitution with a referendum. If the referendum succeeds, Taiwan will become the official name of the country in the Taiwan region. This prospect is consistent with the DPP's presidential candidate Frank Hsieh's vows to run for "president of Taiwan" and DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun's calls to "change the name of the country to Taiwan." So the referendum is a referendum on "Taiwan independence" in disguise. Even if it fails, it can help Chen strengthen Taiwan residents' sense of Taiwanese identity and self-determination through referendum.

Taiwan's participation in the UN and especially the referendum on Taiwan's UN bid are highly deceitful and will have grave consequences. The latter is deemed as a severe challenge to peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits, the Chinese people's will to safeguard national unity and the Anti-Secession Law. In response, the Chinese mainland has made necessary preparations for dealing with any serious situation. The Taiwanese authorities' hype about these issues will complicate the peaceful and stable development of cross-straits relations. If Taiwanese identity gains currency in the 2008 Taiwan "presidential elections," the DPP will be able to steal more votes, making the prospects of the elections more elusive.

Ostensibly, the United States shares the same position on Taiwan's participation in the UN and the referendum on Taiwan's UN bid with China. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte called the referendum attempt "a step toward a declaration of independence of Taiwan and toward an alteration of the status quo." Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Christensen said the United States does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, and called its assertions, along with the referendum, "needless provocations."

Despite harsh warnings, the Pentagon recently announced plans to sell weapons worth $2.2 billion to Taiwan, including 12 P-3C submarine-hunting aircraft. Washington's inconsistent policy toward Taiwan is highly concerning. The United States has always sought to maintain the status quo of "no unification, no independence, no war and no peace" across the Taiwan Straits as part of its strategy to contain China's rise. Taiwan's recent moves are not in its strategic interests, as they are close to crossing the bottom line of its policy. That's why it has put harsher restraints on Chen. However, the United States is the biggest covert supporter of "Taiwan independence." Its support and tolerance are directly responsible for the growth of Taiwanese independence forces' and their assumption of political power on the island. Because the United States does not want to see them weakened, it sells weapons to Taiwan to show its support.

Although Taiwan's bid to apply for UN membership turned out to be futile, Chen will not stop his secessionist efforts. Instead, Taiwanese authorities will advocate the referendum even more fervently. Against this backdrop, many are keeping a close watch on the future developments of the political situation on the island and in cross-straits relations.

Top Chinese and U.S. Diplomats Discuss the Taiwan Issue Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met in New York on September 23 on the sidelines of the 62nd Session of the UN General Assembly. The two officials exchanged views on issues of common concern. On the question of Taiwan, Yang said that Taiwanese authorities, in defiance of the international community's opposition, have obstinately engaged in separatist activities, pushing for a referendum on the so-called "Taiwan's application for the UN membership" and "UN membership in the name of Taiwan." They have not hesitated to provoke hostilities and create a crisis across the Taiwan Straits, and the cross-straits situation is highly sensitive and complicated, he said. Therefore, it is very important for China and the United States to enhance their coordination and cooperation on the question of Taiwan so that the cross-straits situation does not develop out of control. China appreciates the U.S. reiteration of adherence to the one-China policy, abiding by the three Sino-U.S. joint communiqués and opposing the Taiwan authorities' proposed referendum, Yang said. He said he hoped that the United States would work with China to curb Taiwan separatist activities in a bid to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits and protect the common interests between China and the United States. Rice said that the United States holds a responsible position on the question of Taiwan, adheres to the one-China policy, abides by the three Sino-U.S. joint communiqués and opposes comments and actions aimed at changing the status quo of Taiwan unilaterally. - Xinhua News Agency

The author is director of the Comprehensive Research Department of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and executive editor of Taiwan Weekly