He says the stalemate in U.S-Russia relations can be attributed to the two countries' strategic adjustments and the changes in their respective national powers. He further notes that "the law of the jungle," which used to be a most treasured principle at the core of international relations, is taking a toll on U.S.-Russia ties. He points out that the idea is still highly valued by some people several thousand years after it was first proposed. That's why the winner of the Cold War is demanding that it should reap benefits from its victory and that the loser should pay for its defeat, he adds.

He warns that some countries are still using the law of the jungle to handle relations with other countries, a practice that exposes the downside of democracy advocated by some major powers.

Remin University of China's Jin, probing into the complexities involved in the political row over the U.S. missile shield in Europe, points out that Russia traditionally is sensitive to security issues and wants a flexible strategic space. As the United States deploys weapons in its neighboring countries, he says, it will certainly feel that its space is being encroached upon. The deployment of antimissile components is an important link in the U.S. global strategic chain, he affirms; while declaring that they are targeting Iran, the United States actually intends to narrow Russia's space and tighten its control within Europe.

An ever-shifting scenario

When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, Russia was plunged into an unprecedented economic and political crisis, desperately in need of support from the West. Declaring that it had established "a free and democratic system" and was "a natural ally" of the West, it adopted a pro-Western diplomatic strategy. The United States promised economic aid to Russia while lending strong political support to its government. However, the West subsequently failed to honor its economic commitments.

Later, given the changes in the geopolitical situation, Russia adjusted its diplomatic policy to focus on nurturing its relations with the EU, China and India. From 1994 to 1998, U.S.-Russia relations were characterized by the coexistence of cooperation and contention in the political and military fields. The first round of NATO expansion aroused some concern in Russia. As Russia categorically opposed this move, the United States and its allies established a partnership for peace with Russia and created the NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council to placate the country.

Relations between the two countries reached a freezing point from 1998 to 2000 mainly because of the Kosovo War. When the war broke out in March 1999, Russia not only sent out a harsh verbal warning against any external intervention but also dispatched a fleet to the Mediterranean and provided material assistance to Yugoslavia. The then Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov was flying to Washington when he heard the news of the war. He decided to cancel his visit to the United States. Shortly after, Russia called back its representative to NATO and severed its relations with the organization.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States provided a new opportunity for the two superpowers to improve ties. This happened between 2001 and 2002 with the establishment of a "new strategic relationship" and the signing of the Rome Declaration, which created the Russia-NATO Council. However, less than a year later, relations soured again as Russia joined France and Germany in opposing the Iraq war. Tension eased in the following years and they began to cooperate once more on major international issues.

Despite escalating conflict between the two countries since the beginning of this year, experts are not predicting a new Cold War. Russia needs U.S. capital, technology, and managerial expertise as it pursues economic development. Also, it may have to make a compromise with the United States so that it can join the World Trade Organization as scheduled. The United States counts on Russia's influence to address regional hotspots such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran.

During a visit to Russia in mid-May, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that it was "not an easy time" in U.S.-Russia relations, but this did not mean the tension amounted to a new Cold War.

Judging from the present situation, Chen says, it would probably be an exaggeration to say that a new Cold War is pending. "The current strain on U.S.-Russia relations will not have as profound repercussions on Europe and the world as the Cold War," he concludes.