China's leading economists dropped by Wall Street on Monday to provide insight into China's growth prospects for 2013. They also discussed what those expectations could mean for the U.S. economy.
With China's growth expected at 8 to 8.5 percent in 2013, the question among many in the U.S. financial sector at the New York Stock Exchange Monday is if the growth rate can be sustainable in the long term.
Yes, as long as China can overcome key issues, said former World Bank chief economist Justin Yifu Lin, speaking to Chinese and American reporters following his address.
"The main challenge to me the first one is the income distribution issue and the second one is the corruption issue. And especially when you have income issue and coupled with corruption, it can cause all kinds of social resentment," Lin said.
Also, China's dual track economy needs to change.
"So I think it's time for China to carry out the deepening of the market reform, removing the financial repression, removing the distortion in factory prices and so on. And I think that China is moving towards that direction," Lin added.
Qin Xiao, the former China Merchant Bank Chair, said that China's traditional growth model has become an obstacle to economic progress.
"We must face up to the challenge of the middle income trap to conduct the transformation from a growth model driven by large-scale factory inputs to a model characterized by technological innovation."
Apart from the possibility of the middle income trap that would see a long period of subdued growth, China also faces higher labor wages, and a growing aging population.
There was consensus about change ahead for China, but with the evolving social, economic and political climate, one of the key questions was how the U.S.-China economic relationship will play out.
Professor Lin sees it as a win-win situation for both countries that are highly dependent on each other in manufacturing and trade. Besides, China's growth would ensure U.S. exports and fuel domestic job growth.
(CNTV.cn January 8, 2013) |