Beijing Review: What kind of results do you think the United States is expecting from this round of the six-party talks?

Alan D. Romberg: Ideally, the United States would like the North [Korea] not only to recommit to total denuclearization, but to put in place concrete steps leading in that direction. But since that seems unlikely to happen in such a short period of time, especially as the Banco Delta Asia talks have not reached a final conclusion, though they apparently were conducted in a serious atmosphere and are said to have been useful and productive, the United States will look to something a little short of that. (Banco Delta Asia is a Macao-based bank that the United States accused of laundering money for North Korea and imposed sanctions on.)

For now, I think that Washington would like Pyongyang to agree that it will take concrete steps toward denuclearization, perhaps taking an interim measure such as freezing operation of the five megawatt reactor and reprocessing facility at Yongbyon, in return for the United States taking some steps such as providing a written security assurance.

None of this will be good enough for either side as a final step, but it might help create some greater level of mutual trust in the good intentions of the other side, and could be built upon in future talks.

If there is no satisfactory result, what kind of actions do you think the United States will take against North Korea? How will that affect North Korea's economy and how will the country react?

I don't think any negative actions will come out of this round of talks. But Assistant Secretary Hill has made it clear that if, at the end of the day, there is no agreement to implement the September 19, 2005 joint statement of principles, then the United States will look to impose more stringent sanctions on North Korea in order to apply pressure so it comes to terms.

Whether such measures are eventually necessary is very hard to predict at this point, and speculation is not very useful. Speculating about the effect of such measures is also not terribly useful. It all depends on the circumstances and whether others join in the sanctions or not.

A North Korean-influenced newspaper in Japan (Choson Sinbo) spoke this week about the North's possibly engaging in further nuclear testing if there is no progress in the talks. I would not rule that out. But if so, then what will be crucial is how China, South Korea and others would react, not to mention the United States. I cannot imagine any of these countries would react in a sympathetic way to the North [Korea].

How would you comment on China's efforts in promoting the talks and also its role in the international arena?

I think China has worked hard to get progress in the talks. It seems to me that China has in this second session of the fifth round done much the same as it did in the successful fourth round (that produced the statement of principles). That is, China is proposing both a procedure to move forward and will apparently come up with some language to try to capture what might be possible regarding implementation, even in this early stage.

As to China's overall role in the international arena, it has been very active and made some impressive gains. Unfortunately, mutual strategic suspicion remains between the United States and China, and I hope that the senior dialogue created under Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo and Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick can not only keep going but also regain some of its earlier momentum. Dialogue will not resolve all issues, by any means. And the mutual strategic suspicion will not be overcome quickly. But wide-ranging, frank, and visionary dialogue can help identify areas where improvements can be made that will reduce suspicion and promote even more cooperative relations than we now have. The recently begun strategic economic dialogue can also make an important contribution in this regard.

(Reported from New York)