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UPDATED: January 21, 2014 NO. 4 JANUARY 23, 2014
Courting Peace
China contributes to the disposal of Syria's chemical weapons in a cooperative escort mission
By Ding Ying
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"China welcomes the positive and notable outcomes of the verification and destruction of chemical weapons in Syria and appreciates the efforts made by the UN, the OPCW, the Syrian Government and relevant parties of the international community," said Hua. "However, numerous difficulties and uncertainties remain in this historic work." China suggested that ensuring security be a top priority, saying the postponement in the transport of chemical weapons was justified. China expects all relevant parties to keep creating favorable conditions and make concerted efforts to press ahead with the destruction of chemical weapons.

"The chemical weapon crisis finally reached a peaceful solution in 2013, which will positively influence Syria's situation," said Wu Sike, China's envoy on Middle East issues.

China's participation in escorting the shipment of chemical weapons shows that China is taking on more responsibilities in the Syrian crisis, said Li Shaoxian, a senior research fellow on Middle East studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. China's stance of promoting a peaceful solution to the crisis never wavers, said Li. He believes that as China's national strength grows, it will be able to play a more active and constructive role in the region.

China has been providing practical assistance as well as diplomatic support to Syrian people, donating another batch of assistance materials to the country on January 10. The 20 million yuan ($3.2 million) of aid resources, including quilts and blankets, will help Syrian refugees survive the cold winter. Latest statistics from the UN show that at least 2.3 million Syrians fled to other countries in the region, while more than 4.25 million have become homeless.

Twilight of a crisis

The UN confirmed on January 6 that the international conference of Syria will be held in two phases in Montreux and Geneva, Switzerland, from January 22 to 26. It will be the first time for the Syrian Government and opposition to respectively dispatch representatives to an international conference targeting a peaceful solution of Syria's crisis.

But sitting together will be just the first step for negotiations between the two sides. Considering the complex state of affairs in Syria, there will be few expectations for reaching a practical agreement to solve the crisis, which has dragged on since early 2011.

The international community has agreed to seek political settlement to the Syrian crisis and destruction of chemical weapons in the country, said Wu. He pointed out that in spite of the significance of the upcoming conference to Syria's situation, uncertainties still exist due to the related parties' differing views of a political solution. Moreover, opposition forces in Syria cannot unite because of their different stances. The conference will be an open platform for different powers, but it will be very hard to make practical progress, said Wu.

The biggest difference between the government and the opposition is over whether to dismiss current President Bashar al-Assad, which has prevented a settlement, said Liu from the CASS. Liu added that it will not be easy for different opposition groups to choose representatives to participate in the coming conference.

Li agreed that the possibility of reaching practical progress is slight. He explained that the conference will focus on establishing an interim government and preventing victory of extreme religious militants, and it will be hard to reach consensus on both issues. He said that due to Egypt's situation and the breakthrough in the Iranian nuclear issue, the Syrian crisis will be less important than it was in 2013.

There will be a general election in Syria after Assad completes his term in the spring. The West hopes to see a power switch after the election. But Assad is unlikely to give up his administration as he is currently winning the battle for power domestically.

Liu said that Assad still has a good chance to win the election. "Assad is firmly supported by women and young people in Syria as well as by the ruling Alawites. Moreover, the opposition groups' reputation has fallen after scandals like the cannibalism affair that occurred last June," said Liu. "It will be difficult to find a substitute who has the ability to clean up the mess in Syria." She predicted that once Assad wins the coming election, Washington might change its former approach of ousting Assad.

The United States started changing its stance after Al Qaeda became involved in the Syrian conflict, said Liu. "At least Assad will confront Al Qaeda, which is helpful to Washington's anti-terrorism goals," Liu added.

Email us at: dingying@bjreview.com

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