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UPDATED: May 26, 2009 NO. 21 MAY 28, 2009
Not a G2 But a Trio
The new world order has three major players: Europe, China and the United States
By DAVID GOSSET
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 COURTESY OF DAVID GOSSET

On the occasion of the London summit on April 2, the leaders of the G20 declared in their final statement: "We face the greatest challenge to the world economy in modern times."

But by questioning many of our assumptions, our ways of doing business and even some of our values, the crisis has prompted meaningful reflection and debate, generated intense consultation and triggered important reforms. From a geopolitical perspective, it underlines a rearrangement of power that was already reshaping our world system. The European Union (EU), China and the United States are the three main structuring forces of the 21st century global village, and the dynamics within this triangle as much as its interactions with the rest of the world will largely determine the foreseeable future of world politics. In this context, the idea floated by some analysts of a G2, composed of the United States and China, is a theoretical bipolarization that evacuates one fundamental dimension and misses a more nuance and complex reality.

Obviously, China is already a pillar of Asia's stability and is in a position to co-design a new world order. The Chinese renaissance modifies the world's distribution of power in a gradual and peaceful process that does not entail abrupt discontinuity or violent disruption.

Europe, another major factor in the world affairs equation, also has to cope with the decline of global economic activity. Even if the Europeans have tackled challenges mainly at the national level, the crisis exposes the need for a more integrated and potent Europe. With adequate leadership, the EU could take some initiative to put itself in a position to have a strategic role commensurate with the weight of its economy and in tune with its sui generis culture.

Although President Barack Obama's America remains a key element of the global village, the United States has lost the status of unchallenged hyperpower. The failure of Wall Street was not at the origin of the current redistribution of power, but reinforced a shift that was already under way.

Confronted with the growing evidence of China's re-emergence and the increasing economic interdependence across the Pacific within "Chinamerica," some have raised the idea of a G2. In an article titled, "The Group of Two That Could Change the World," Zbigniew Brzezinski declared that the world needs an informal G2 made up of China and the United States.

Undoubtedly, the Sino-American relationship has to be taken to another level, but it does not have to be a process that would put the EU on the margin of world affairs. Sino-American and Sino-European links have to be upgraded simultaneously.

Only a trio and not a G2 can contribute to solving the world's social, economic and political problems. A constructive triangulation between Beijing, Washington and Brussels requires an open China, a cooperative America and a cohesive EU, but would also depend on actors free of past ideological barriers and able to conceive cooperation where all the potential synergy could flourish.

Instead of speculating on a G2, the time has come to initiate a strategic trialogue, a process that would bring together top Chinese, American and European leaders. A trio is not a triumvirate in the sense that it does not aim to subordinate other poles of power. By accepting the idea of a multipolar world, the EU-China-U.S. trio can be a genuinely constructive dynamic.

In the EU-China-U.S. triangle, the link between Europe and China has a special significance. Europe and China are two civilizations with certain symmetrical characteristics at the two edges of the same continent, and by deepening their relationship they can bring prosperity and stability to the vast and complex space in the middle of Eurasia.

Various forms of excess are certainly to blame for the current tumultuous global conditions. From the temptations of neo-imperialism to irrational exuberance, hubris is too often in action. Europe and China have proved several times in their long history that they can find the path of moderation and the way of balance. The United States would benefit from two ancient civilizations capable of reinterpreting the best of their respective traditions.

The EU-China-U.S. trio has in itself the material and spiritual resources to serve the ideal of a more harmonious modernity—an era of synthesis and conciliation between present and past, man and nature and civilizations.



 
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