Liu Jiangyong, professor at the Institute of International Studies of Tsinghua University, agreed. The United States has no intention to shape a strategic alliance against China today, although it made such futile attempts during the Cold War, he said. Since the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, the United States has put antiterrorism at the top of its national security agenda. With the Iraq War being prolonged and international terrorism rapidly spreading, the United States is confronted with an invisible enemy - the global terrorist network. The risk of nuclear proliferation is just as severe. Given these, the United States now faces even graver threats than in the Cold War, Liu said.

American national interests demand that the United States collaborate with China instead of running into conflicts with the country, Liu said. As neoconservative forces disappeared from the second administration of George W. Bush, the United States has more clearly defined China as a "stakeholder." At the same time, it showed increasing dissatisfaction over Japan's right-wing forces. While putting the U.S.-Japan alliance at the center of its Asia-Pacific strategy, the Americans are unwilling to align with Japan against China or do anything to hurt China-U.S. relations because of Japan, he said.

Varying perspectives

During Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Japan in December last year, the two countries decided to establish a "strategic and global partnership." Japan and Australia signed a security agreement during Australian Prime Minister John Howard's visit to Japan in March. They agreed to enhance their joint foreign and defense ministry discussions and to have ministerial talks on a regular basis. The first two-plus-two dialogue was held in Tokyo on June 6, making Australian the second country in the world to hold such a discussion with Japan.

Japan, the United States and Australia conducted their first trilateral military drill in Japanese seas in April. In early September, the three countries together with India and Singapore staged a large-scale military exercise in the Bay of Bengal. However, India and Australia have different agendas, experts said. Despite stronger political and security cooperation between Australia and Japan in recent years, Australia's main goal is to encourage Japan to play a greater role in maintaining security in the Pacific region, Li said. With its national power swelling, Australia hopes to exert its influence in the Asia-Pacific region, he said. Neighboring Solomon Islands, Fiji and Timor-Leste are all torn by wars and conflicts. However, Australia does not have adequate troops, a problem that is aggravated by its sending of troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. It therefore needs Japan's help in peacekeeping missions, Li said.

Initially, Australia did not respond positively to Japan's "four-nation alliance" for fear of angering China, its second largest trading partner, Li said. It insists that the Australia-Japan security agreement signed in March has no anti-China focus, he said.

India, a country that cherishes its tradition of independent diplomacy, has not show much interest in the initiative, either, Li said. It has been prudent about U.S.-Japan security cooperation, especially with attempts to curb China's influence through this cooperation, Sharing common interests on a number of major issues, China and India have seen their relations progress smoothly in recent years. Given its diplomatic tradition and practical needs, India will not tilt itself in favor of Japan and the United States, Li said.

Li added that India is strengthening its ties with the two countries in part to attract investment from them and raise its own international standing, thereby upgrading its cooperation with China and Russia.

Sincerity counts

More importantly, Li said Japan's "quadrilateral initiative" contradicts the historical trend at a time when security cooperation and common development are becoming the consensus in the Asia-Pacific region. The ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea mechanism and the East Asia Summit constitute the major security structure in the region. China, the United States, Russia, Japan, ASEAN, India, Australia and South Korea are all participants in and builders of the structure. No Asia-Pacific security structure can be established exclusive of any of these parties, Li said.

Li pointed out that Japan is attempting to dominate the security order in East Asia with a "four-nation alliance" by is giving short shrift to the roles of China, Russia and ASEAN. Its exclusiveness is likely to deepen other countries' suspicions and eventually make the proposed alliance the biggest instable factor in the region, he said.

Since he took office in September last year, Abe has introduced some changes to Japan's foreign policy, Li said. On the one hand, Japan is trying to repair its frayed political relations with China by making a compromise on the hotly contested issues concerning its perception of the wartime past. On the other hand, it is cautiously competing with China for geopolitical dominance. To that end, it seeks to raise its profile as it advocates a "value-oriented alliance" and an "arc of freedom and prosperity" in its diplomatic activities with major countries, Li said.

By proposing the "broader Asia" concept, Japan is taking a step toward implementing its "value-oriented diplomacy," Liu of Tsinghua University said. It is obviously not a geographic concept but a political one, because Japan does not put its relations with China on a par with its relations with the other three countries, he added. In Japan's view, Sino-Japanese relations are built only on "common interests," while its relations with the United States, India and Australia are based on "common interest" and "shared values," he said.

However, fostering an "Asian NATO" within the framework of the Japan-U.S. military alliance will be extremely difficult given the other three countries' reluctance, he said.

Abe's policies have taken a toll on Sino-Japanese relations, Liu said. Chinese statistics show that in the first half of this year, two-way trade between China and Japan grew 14.5 percent over the same period last year, compared to 50.3 percent growth in China-India trade.

In terms of human links with China, South Korea is way ahead of Japan, Liu said. He predicted that China-South Korea relations would grow more prosperous than Sino-Japanese relations in the near future.

"Japan should sincerely improve its relations with China in the spirit of creating win-win results for all countries in the region," he said. "Attempts to build blocs mean nothing but a waste of diplomatic resources and are bound to fail."