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UPDATED: September 21, 2007 NO.39 SEP.27, 2007
Another Putin Era Without Putin
The Russian president will leave his post in 2008, but his influence and policies will remain
By DING YING
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Yang Chuang, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University and a senior researcher on Russia, said this was a familiar Russian tactic. In August 1999, President Boris Yeltsin nominated Putin, his chosen successor for president, as prime minister.

Before Putin nominated Zubkov, First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, as well as Putin's presidential chief of staff and OAO Gazprom chairman Dmitry Medvedev, were widely considered to be potential presidential successors.

Putin selected Zubkov for several reasons, Yang said. First, Putin and Zubkov have close ties. Both served as senior government officials in St. Petersburg, and Putin has commented on Zubkov's ability to lead the country.

Second, Zubkov, having worked in high-ranking economic and financial positions in the Russian Government, will adhere to Putin's policy of developing the country's economic strength. As former first deputy finance minister and chief of a committee at the Russian anti-money laundering service, Zubkov gained experience monitoring the country's economic development.

Third, by nominating Zubkov, Putin has put him under the spotlight so Russians can get to know him better. This will allow the country to have a smooth interim period between the two presidents' administrations, should Zubkov assume office.

Fourth, having Zubkov in the presidential palace will pave the way for Putin's return for presidency. Putin, 54, is energetic, healthy and enjoys wide support of Russian citizens. Many foreign experts believe his best political policies and legacy will be in the years to come. If he were to run for president in the 2012 election, Zubkov, who is now 66, would not likely stay in the post for two terms, they say.

Future Russian policy

The months preceding the parliamentary elections in December and the presidential election next March will be crucial, Yang said, because any major political or economic changes during this period will decide the country's future leaders and policy.

No matter who wins the presidential election, the country's major policies will remain the same, Xia from the CIIS said. If one of the top three candidates - Zubkov, Ivanov or Medvedev - becomes president, the other two will serve as important officials in the new government.

Because the three are all chosen by Putin, and they all laud Putin's strategies on politics, economy and diplomacy, Putin will continue to influence Russia as his policy will remains, Xia said. Russia also will keep up its strategy of economic development by opening up more to the world, nationalizing its energy resources, eliminating financial and industrial oligarchs and increasing its living standard, he added. The country also will focus on developing its scientific research and technology.

The continuation of Putin's policies under his successor will maintain Russia's revival as a growing military, economic and diplomatic power, although the country will still confront and cooperate with the United States.

"Russia will be more influential and will play a bigger role on the world stage," Xia said.

Shen Shishun, another foreign affairs expert from the CIIS, said that because Russia and the United States are two of the biggest countries in the world, "it is natural for them to fight for their own national interests." He pointed out that after the Cold War ended, it became clear to Russia that intense competition with the United States would not be rational. The two countries also must work together on antiterrorism, world security, climate change and environmental protection, he said.

"However, if America continues its NATO enlargement policy and further squeezes Russia's strategic space in spite of Russia's feelings, Russia will definitely take hard-line measures to protect its own interest," Shen said. Both countries still will have disputes over how to determine which extremist activities in central Asia should be considered terrorist activities.

As neighbors that share an over-4,300-km-long border, Russia's ongoing revival now and under Putin's successor also will influence its relations with China. Once the countries settled their centuries-old border disputes in 2005, they had less to fight about and more to share, Xia said. The old notion that "a powerful neighbor is a potential threat" is almost outdated today, he added.

In recent years, China and Russia have strengthened their ties through increasing trade and security cooperation measures. China's northeast provinces - Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang - have had great economic growth due to the two countries' interactions, Xia said. And as members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Beijing and Moscow will continue to work hand-in-hand to maintain the peace, development and security under this regional framework, he said.

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