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UPDATED: August 3, 2007 NO.32 AUG.9, 2007
Prospects for ASEAN
After 40 years of development, ASEAN faces both great opportunities and challenges in the future
By ZHANG XIZHEN
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Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei) has been set to take effect in 2010, but for newer members (Viet Nam, Laos and Cambodia), the date is 2015, which is far behind expectation.

Second, ASEAN doesn't have an effective central authority, resulting in a lack of effective control of regional problems. When faced with comprehensive problems, ASEAN can do nothing but bite its fingernails. The organization should have a more consolidated policy and be able to take unified action when confronted with financial crises and international crimes such as drug smuggling, human trafficking and pollution. ASEAN still does not work efficiently in these areas.

Third, ASEAN finds itself in a great dilemma because it has run up against international pressure over its principle of not interfering in the domestic affairs of its member countries. ASEAN's overcautious actions on Timor-Leste's clashes with Indonesia and Myanmar's harsh military regime have brought great pressure from the West. Especially on the Burma issue, ASEAN failed to persuade the military regime to step down, but yet it did not want to betray the will of the West, which would surely have jeopardized their relations.

Fourth, the status of ASEAN's core countries is not solid and the organization's cohesion is disappearing. For example, the influence of Indonesia, which used to be the leading member, is not as effective as it used to be. ASEAN's troika - Indonesia's former President Suharto, Singapore's former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew and Malaysia's former Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad-stepped off the political stage one after another. Since then, no new influential political figures have emerged, and the lack of powerful leaders hinders ASEAN's development.

Future prospects

ASEAN has come to a turning point. To meet new challenges and adapt to new situations as they arise, reforms and innovations are necessary. As a matter of fact, the organization is already moving in this direction.

First, ASEAN has adjusted its development goal. During the organization's summit in 2003, its members discussed the idea of forming a community. At the 12th summit in January 2007, the members agreed to accelerate the building of an ASEAN community and to deepen ASEAN's integrity to better foster its dominance and central position on regional affairs. They also pledged to build up an ASEAN community covering regional security, economy and socio-culture, in the hope of developing a "more solid, more unified and more cohesive ASEAN."

Second, ASEAN has decided that its reforms should be more institutionalized and legitimized to increase its efficiency and functioning. Member countries at ASEAN's summit in 2005 issued the Kuala Lumpur Declaration, which sought to create an ASEAN Charter. A special group was formed at that summit to provide practical recommendations on the directions for ASEAN and charter's nature. Member countries discussed this report at the 12th ASEAN summit, and subsequently issue the Cebu Declaration on the Blueprint of the ASEAN Charter.

At present, the content of ASEAN Charter is not clear, but its main ideas are as follows:

. To build up the legal basis for ASEAN, making it a regional and international organization with established protocols

. To perfect the organization, increase its functional mechanism, enhance the secretariat's functions and improve the central authority's decision-making power

. To improve and perfect the decision-making process and supervising mechanism, which would enable ASEAN to become an efficient international organization with efficiency

Reflecting the distinctiveness of its members, ASEAN will walk in its own shoes and not emulate the EU as it strides along the road to reform. There will be some improvements in the ASEAN mode of regional engagement, but some principles that have proved to be efficient will be preserved.

It is still hard to say whether these reforms will be successes or failures. But ASEAN's direction is definitely right. These reforms will push ASEAN in a more mature and solid direction and help the organization be a more effective driving force for regional development and stability.

Milestones for ASEAN

August 8, 1967: ASEAN is founded, marking the start of real connections between Southeast Asian countries and the beginning of their integration. The organization emphasizes building and improving functional institutions, dealing with internal conflicts, protecting and preserving regional peace and stability and engaging in dialogues with big powers.

January 1, 1993: At the Fourth ASEAN Summit in Singapore in 1992, leaders of ASEAN members agree on building up a bloc-wide free trade area within 15 years, to be completed in 2008. They reset the deadline to 2003, but finally settle on 2002.

October 7, 2003: The Declaration of ASEAN Concord II is released, which sets 2020 as the date for the establishment of the ASEAN Community. 

The author is a professor in the School of International Studies at Peking University

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