Jerome A. Cohen: With regard to trade relations, we should expect continuing progress and mutual benefit, but this will require not only more substantial concessions from China about opening its markets and adjusting its currency but also a long-overdue recognition by the United States that its massive trade deficits are largely the product of the American people's lack of economic discipline and their government's unwise tax and spending policies.
How will the Democrats' control of the House and Senate change Washington's China policy? And how will that affect bilateral relations?
Jeffrey A. Bader: U.S. policy toward China will be fundamentally unaffected in most respects by the change in control of Congress. On security and political issues, there is little difference between the two parties with regard to China. On economic issues, some Democrats are more wary of the impact of globalization and the effect of trade on American workers than their Republican counterparts. That may result in occasional targeted measures that affect trade in highly specific sectors, but I do not foresee Democrats supporting steps that significantly retard two-way trade. Democrats understand that the prosperity of China and of Asia affects American prosperity and they do not wish to see U.S. economic growth damaged.
Finally, it should be remembered that the president has the responsibility under the American Constitution to conduct foreign policy and he has the power to veto legislation in the trade area. So the initiative and in most cases the final word on policy will remain with President Bush, where it has been for the last six years.
Minxin Pei: The Democrats will put more pressure on the issues of human rights and trade balances, although the Democrats do not share the Republican view that China is a military threat to the United States. So in practical terms, China should expect rising criticisms from Congress on trade and human rights issues.
Jerome A. Cohen: I do not believe that the Democrats' control of Congress will seriously add to the difficulties of U.S.-China relations. Although our country is deeply divided over our disastrous Middle East policy, there has been and continues to be broad bipartisan support for better relations with China despite flare-ups over Taiwan, human rights and trade. Our leaders of both major parties recognize that each country needs the other and that it would be irresponsible to pursue courses of action that might unduly strain our cooperation.
What kind of role do you think the China-U.S. relationship plays in international affairs?
Jeffrey A. Bader: The relationship between the United States and China is critical for the resolution and management of a number of important international issues, and of importance for some others.
A close relationship between the United States and China is absolutely essential for the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. The good relationship between Washington and Beijing has facilitated the six-party talks, though it has not led to a resolution of the issue.
A stable U.S.-China relationship contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, which is essential to peace and prosperity throughout the East Asian region.
The resolution of issues in the UN Security Council depends on cooperation between our two countries. Among the most prominent such issues at the present time are Iran's nuclear program and the Darfur conflict in Sudan. Closer cooperation between the United States and China will be essential to solving those problems. The two countries are working in parallel to support reconstruction and stability in Afghanistan.
Minxin Pei: This relationship is crucially important in the regional security of East Asia. As long as the two countries cooperate, East Asia will remain peaceful.
Cooperation between the United States and China will also help resolve several global challenges-energy security, climate change and nuclear proliferation.
At the moment, the United States and China cooperate more on some issues than on others. On the North Korean nuclear issue, the two countries cooperate more; but the two countries are not working closely on energy security and climate change.
Fifteen years from now, on the 50th anniversary of your first trip to Beijing, how do you think we can expect Sino-U.S. relations to appear?
Henry Kissinger: I hope they will have been adapted to the new situation that we described before. Right now, the relationship is good and cooperative. But many of the problems that I mentioned are still before us. But I'm optimistic because I've seen now a succession of American presidents committing themselves to the importance of the relationship and to making the adjustments that were needed. And I've seen a succession of Chinese leaders who have moved in a parallel direction. So I'm basically optimistic.
But of course we are now coming into a period when new types of people are getting into power on both sides, more attuned to the current technology, less conceptual, more geared to the Internet type of cognition. And how that will be related to long-term policy, on any subject, is to me a big challenge.
Reporting from New York
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