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Print Edition> World
UPDATED: December 31, 2014 NO. 2 JANUARY 8, 2015
The Cuban Conciliation
Long-lasting Cold War hostility between Havana and Washington may come to an end
By Bai Shi
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Obama's decision, which comes as a long-awaited change of policy toward Cuba, is significant because it shows the new consideration of U.S. strategy on Latin America, said Niu Haibin, a researcher with the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

Since former U.S. President George W. Bush assumed office in 2000, Latin America has been low on the U.S. foreign policy agenda, Niu noted, adding that Obama's willingness to seek a new beginning with Cuba may mark a change in direction.

Latin America has built diversified economic ties with the rest of the world, preventing the U.S. trade embargo against Cube from achieving its expected results. If the policy continues, it will harm U.S. leadership in the Latin American region and cause U.S. companies to miss out on chances to participate in the economic reform process in Cuba, Niu commented.

In November 2013, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry declared that "the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over." This has been regarded as a prelude for the upcoming change of U.S. policy on Latin America, in which improving ties with Cuba may become the first step, Niu added.

Furthermore, Obama seized the right time to announce his policy shift on U.S.-Cuba ties before the new session of U.S. Congress run under the control of Republicans convenes, Niu added.

In the remaining time of his second presidential term, it will be difficult for Obama to accomplish much on foreign affairs as Democrats lost a majority in U.S. Congress in the mid-term election. Nevertheless, Obama made a prompt move to secure his legacy with the Cuba policy shift.

Obstacles and influences

The latest move has ushered in a new chapter of U.S.-Cuba relations. However, whether the normalization process can unfold smoothly remains to be seen, Zhang said. He predicted that Obama's policy shift would probably meet tough opposition by the Republican-controlled Congress, conservatives and a large number of Cuban exiles.

For Cuba, which has built a unique political and economic system under the circumstance of U.S. embargo and sanctions, the lift of embargo and opening to Western countries might bring a radical change to its political and social structure, Zhang added.

Niu said that issues such as values and human rights could continue to hinder U.S.-Cuba relations. According to him, the Obama administration emphasizes the role of non-governmental organizations and citizens in reform that could be limited in Cuba. Thus, the normalization of the U.S.-Cuba diplomatic ties will undergo twists and turns, he noted.

The change of U.S.-Cuba ties will have an influence on the rest of the world, too.

Xu Shicheng, another researcher with the Institute of Latin America under the CASS, said that the United States and Cuba historically shared close economic ties. The U.S. trade embargo has caused heavy economic losses for both countries. Obama's decision to normalize diplomatic ties with Cuba will promote regional peace and prosperity in the Western Hemisphere.

Jin Canrong, a professor at the Beijing-based Renmin University of China, said that normalized U.S.-Cuba ties will be good for China, which is Cuba's major trading partner. The lift of U.S. trade embargo will prompt a better business environment in Cuba, which will encourage Chinese businesses' investment in the country.

Email us at: baishi@bjreview.com

Chronicle of the U.S.-Cuba Relations Since 1959

1959: Led by Fidel Castro, the Cuban people overthrew dictator Fulgencio Batista and established a pro-Soviet Union regime.

1960-61: The new Cuban regime nationalized U.S. businesses in the country; the United States cut off diplomatic relations and imposed a trade embargo in response.

1961: A U.S.-supported invasion that attempted to overthrow the Castro-led government ended in utter failure in the infamous "Bay of Pigs" incident. Castro proclaimed Cuba a communist state and began to ally it with the Soviet Union.

1962: The uban missile crisis was triggered when U.S. intelligence found that a Soviet Union fleet tried to carry nuclear missiles to Cuba. The crisis was subsequently resolved when Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet Union leader, agreed to remove the missiles in return for the withdrawal of U.S. nuclear missiles from Turkey and the U.S. pledge not to invade Cuba. The United States continued the blockade and embargo measures against Cuba after the crisis ended.

1996: The United States made its trade embargo permanent in response to Cuba's shooting down of two U.S. planes operated by Cuban exiles based in Miami, Florida.

2002: The George W. Bush administration added Cuba to the U.S. list of "axis of evil" countries and accused Cuba of trying to develop biological weapons.

2008: Raúl Castro formally took office as Cuban president after Fidel Castro announced his retirement.

April 2009:Three months after assuming office, U.S. President Barack Obama said that he wanted a new beginning with Cuba.

December 2013: Obama and Raúl Castro met and shook hands at Nelson Mandela's funeral in Johannesburg, South Africa.

December 17, 2014: Obama announced that the United States and Cuba are on the verge of restoring diplomatic ties. Meanwhile, Raúl Castro said he welcomed Obama's decision in a TV statement.

(Compiled by Beijing Review)

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