As Ukraine declared to change its system of government from presidential to parliamentarian, the country's head of government will be assumed by the majority leader—hence the power of the Ukrainian presidency will be weakened.

Currently, the party of former Premier Yulia Tymoshenko holds a majority of seats in the Ukrainian parliament. Though Tymoshenko lost the presidential election, it is widely believed that she will further consolidate the position of her party in the country and continue to play a big role in Ukrainian politics, possibly affecting Poroshenko's foreign policy.

How much Poroshenko can achieve during his presidency is still a question to be decided in the future parliamentary election, said Li. The parliamentary election has been scheduled to take place by the end of the year.

In response to the Ukrainian presidential election, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is ready to enter talks with the new leadership.

Aside from Russia's official position on the election, Ding of the CICIR noted that the recent series of moves also showed that Moscow is inclined to ease the situation.

Russia did not recognize the pro-Russia separatists' independence referendum in eastern Ukraine in early May. After the latest Ukrainian election, the majority of Russian troops were reported to have moved away from the border with Ukraine.

Testing the waters

Soon after winning the election, Poroshenko voiced hopes to meet the Russian leadership in the first half of June to discuss a solution to the crisis in his country, saying that Moscow's assistance on the issue was crucial for Kiev.

It is widely said that as a successful businessman, Poroshenko is a pragmatist, and he knows clearly what Russia means for Ukraine's national unity.

However, while Poroshenko extended an olive branch to Moscow for dialogue, the president-elect took a tough stance toward Russia in his victory speech.

Poroshenko refused the Russian proposal of a federal system in eastern Ukraine and emphasized that he will never recognize the referendum in Crimea, which resulted in the peninsula's affiliation with Russia, saying he "would do his best to seek the return of Crimea." He also reiterated Ukraine's commitment to staying the course for integration with the EU.

Yang Jin, an associate research fellow on international studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Poroshenko's tough remarks are understandable.

As the president-elect, Poroshenko must pose a tough stance to defend Ukraine's national interests, said Yang. But Yang also noted that the new leader's remarks are full of flexible diplomatic parlance such as "using legal means," which shows that he will keep a stance of both fighting and cooperating with Russia in the future.

Ding echoed Yang, saying that Poroshenko needs to display his firm attitude on Ukraine's national unity to his supporters.

But Ding also noted that Poroshenko actually has been taking a clear pro-West stance. According to Ding, as a supporter of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Poroshenko played an important role in the Orange Revolution a decade ago. He was also a major supporter of the anti-government protest that broke out in Ukraine at the end of 2013.

"Poroshenko will not back down from the course of Ukraine's integration with the EU," Ding told Beijing Review. But as for the Crimea issue, even though Poroshenko promised to do his best to seek the peninsula's return, "the die has been cast," Ding said.

The problems facing the future negotiating table of Kiev and Moscow go beyond the Crimea issue. A key point in any negotiations with Moscow will be the price at which Ukraine purchases Russian natural gas. Moscow has demanded Ukraine pay back billions of dollars it saved on a significantly reduced gas price under Yanukovych. The presidential election has done little to ease tensions in the east. Without the mediation of Moscow, it is unthinkable for Kiev to achieve reconciliation with the country's eastern region.

Ding said it would be a tough process if talks between Kiev and Moscow really begin, and the talks will require political wisdom of both sides.

Moscow is watching the next moves of Kiev to see whether Poroshenko takes proper care of Russia's interests or one-sidedly embraces the West, said Ding. If the new Ukrainian authorities cannot properly handle its eastern states or hurt Russia's interests, it cannot rule out that Russia may escalate the situation, Ding added.

Email us at: yulintao@bjreview.com