Putin's attitude is similar. He admitted that no promises could be made, but added that diplomatic channels could ease the current tensions.

A turbulent nation

Many cities in east Ukraine broke out in demonstrations after Crimea's referendum, protesting their leaving Ukraine and joining Russia. There is no sign of the domestic situation calming down.

The upcoming presidential election is unlikely to act as a silver bullet to bring the crisis to an end.

Qu said that managing ethnic conflicts in Ukraine is challenging for historical reasons. The government will face a tough task in relieving poverty, which is the root cause of people's dissatisfaction. Besides, Qu added, if the new government cannot sustain the sensitive balance between Russia and the West, political crises could ignite at any moment.

Xia believes that the ongoing conflicts have shown that neither Russia nor the West can fully control Ukraine.

"Stability in Ukraine will depend on solving two major problems: whether future reform will satisfy demands of eastern Ukrainian cities; and whether the national economy can improve," Xia stressed.

Demanding the economically stagnant Ukraine pay its gas bills owed to Russia, Putin threatened to cut off the country's supply unless advance payment is made. The Russian president asked EU nations on April 19 to offer a helping hand to Ukraine, so as to guarantee a normal gas supply to Europe, which will be sent via pipelines through Ukraine. Putin said that Moscow has no intention of crashing Ukraine's economy, or disrupting natural gas and oil supplies to Europe. This move had no connection with Ukraine's political process and coming election, he claimed.

"Of course, debt should be paid. The West has no reason to refute Russia's request," said Xia. "Once the pipelines are shut down, Europe will also have an energy crisis."

Ukrainian Finance Minister Alexander Shlapak applied for foreign assistance to get through the current difficulty. "Our task is to borrow at least $9 billion on foreign markets to ease the pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves," Shlapak said on April 18, promising the Ukrainian Government will do its best to fulfill Kiev's debt obligations.

Apart from its expensive energy bills, the Ukrainian economy is facing bankruptcy over high budget deficits, huge state debt and low foreign exchange reserves, which dropped in March to $15.08 billion, the lowest level ever. According to the finance minister, the government is negotiating a loan between $14 billion and $18 billion from the International Monetary Fund, which could also unlock financial help from other international lenders in order to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat.

Xia said that Western countries will not give much international help to Ukraine as their economies are not strong enough to do that. "A $10-20 billion loan will not solve Ukraine's economic and financial problems," Xia said.

However, he said, Moscow's target is not to swallow up more east Ukrainian cities, but to press the Ukrainian Government and the West to accept east Ukraine's claims for more rights of autonomy and the adoption of Russian as an official language.

"All elements in the crisis—the EU and Washington's policy, Russia's attitude and domestic situation of Ukraine—are changing, which makes the whole situation very challenging," said Xia.

A fragile agreement cannot contain the players, but a common demand to control the regional situation can. As both Washington and Moscow are unprepared for direction confrontation, the Ukrainian crisis will remain a game of chicken.

Email us at: dingying@bjreview.com