In May 2013, Choe Ryong Hae, Director of the General Political Bureau of North Korea's military, visited Beijing as the special envoy of Kim Jong Un. He delivered three messages to Chinese leaders: Pyongyang is willing to work together with China to promote the development of bilateral relations; it hopes to focus on developing the economy, improving people's livelihoods and creating a peaceful external environment; and it is willing to take China's advice to engage in dialogue with related parties. Five months later, Pyongyang suggested the comprehensive resumption of the Kaesong Industrial Complex to Seoul, before the two sides agreed to restart the industrial park as a pilot run.

The outside world has noticed that Choe avoided the nuclear issue during his China visit. Some analysts said Pyongyang hopes to restart dialogue with other parties as a de facto nuclear weapon state and without any external preconditions on the North Korean Government. If the nuclear status of North Korea cannot be changed, what is the aim of negotiations without the objective of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula?

However, Pyongyang's softening stance has halted the deterioration of the situation and helped to create room for a possible turnaround.

It has also shown the outside world that Kim Jong Un is aware of the importance of the China-North Korea relationship to the survival and development of North Korea. Restoring and improving bilateral relations would inevitably be Pyongyang's first step in finding an exit strategy.

A new twist

Just when there was once again hope for the relaxation of the Korean Peninsula situation, the process was again interrupted by North Korea's internal politics. The second most powerful political figure in Pyongyang, Jang Sung Taek, who was married to Kim Jong Un's aunt, was removed from all posts and executed in early December 2013.

North Korea also staged pledges of loyalty to Kim Jong Un shortly afterward. It is very possible that there will be a new round of large-scale personnel changes in the country at the beginning of 2014. The changing political landscape in North Korea has given the world with a greater sense of uncertainty about its foreign and domestic policies.

China, which considers the incident an internal affair of North Korea, took a cool-headed stance. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said China will stay committed to pushing the traditional friendship and cooperation with North Korea. During telephone calls with his Russian and U.S. counterparts, as well as the UN secretary general, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China would continue to make joint efforts with all parties to promote the restart of the six-party talks as soon as possible. When interviewed by the media, Wang also said he hopes and believes that there would be no big changes in Pyongyang's domestic and foreign policies.

Against this backdrop, technical-level exchanges between China and North Korea remain normal. Around the time when Pyongyang announced the removal of Jang, China and North Korea signed a cooperation agreement on building an economic zone on schedule. Exchanges between the two countries' foreign ministries also proceeded as normal.

Beijing's calm response has shown its confidence over the China-North Korea relationship, as it is impossible for Pyongyang to handle its relations if China neglects geopolitical reality. Some analysts say after calming the waters of its domestic affairs, Pyongyang may try to arrange a visit to China by Kim Jong Un. Beijing might take some time to dwell on this issue however. Only when Beijing has confirmed that Pyongyang has no intention to challenge China's bottom line on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue and truly intends to shift its focus to developing its economy as well as improving people's livelihoods, will its door be opened to Kim Jong Un.

For Beijing, finding a new balancing point between Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul on nuclear issue to promote the restart of the six-party talks will be another challenge.

North Korea has shown itself as unpredictable over the past two years. To restore its trust with the international community and open the door to dialogue once more will still take some time.

The author is an op-ed contributor to Beijing Review

Email us at: yanwei@bjreview.com