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Print Edition> World
UPDATED: July 22, 2013 NO. 30 JULY 25, 2013
Rudd's Road
The Australian prime minister plans to help the Labor Party win in the coming parliamentary elections
By Ding Ying
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Wang pointed out that although it is too early to predict the winner of the campaign, Rudd's personal charisma will be a big factor in the elections. Besides, Rudd will choose a favorable date to carry out the elections to guarantee the Labor Party's ruling status.

Wang noted that Australia has undergone a tendency of policy convergence in recent years—that is, policy differences between parties are much less striking than before. Political parties are generally more likely to adopt moderate policies to gain a broader range of voters. Wang pointed out that the Conservatives generally support small government and applaud the functions of the market, while the Labor Party stresses social welfare, equality and justice. But he believed both parties will choose moderate policies during the campaign.

"It will be difficult for either party to gain an overwhelming victory during the elections. The Conservatives are basically center right, while the Labor Party is more center left," said Wang.

In light of Australia's economic situation, the two parties' economic policies will be a highlight during the coming campaign. Statistics from the Australian Government showed that Australia's GDP during the first quarter of 2013 saw a 2.5-percent year-on-year increase. The country's mining industry is nearly stagnant. After Rudd was sworn in as prime minister, he urged development of non-mining industries, such as finance, education and manufactured products, instead of raw material exports.

Moreover, Rudd decided to ease relations between the Labor Party and the business circle. He recently announced plans for the fixed price on carbon emissions to end on June 30, 2014. A floating carbon price, or an emissions trading scheme, which would be linked to the European carbon market, would start the following day. "The government has decided to terminate the carbon tax to ease the cost of living pressures for families and to reduce costs for small businesses," Rudd said. "The nation's 370 biggest polluters will continue to pay for their carbon pollution, but the cost will be reduced, meaning less pressure on consumers."

Although Gillard set the elections for September 14, Rudd can hold them from August until November. He has declined to publicly announce a date, but he said there would not be a significant variation from September 14.

"Having been absent from the post of prime minister, Rudd doesn't have many strong political achievements to compete with his opponent. An earlier election date will not bring him much benefit," said Wang. He explained that there will be many international conferences and summits in the coming fall, such as the Group of 20 Summit. Being an outstanding debater and diplomat, Rudd's performance on the international stage could net him political points abroad and add to his attractiveness at home, Wang added.

Observers agreed that regardless of which party wins the elections, there will be few changes in Sino-Australian and U.S.-Australian relations.

During the past three years, the Sino-Australian relationship has been highly promoted. When stating her political achievements upon her departure, Gillard stressed that Australia's relations with its largest trade partner, China, have been lifted to a "strategic partnership" during her visit to China in April.

"The bilateral relationship has been institutionally guaranteed by establishing such a strategic partnership. Plus, flourishing economic cooperation has bonded the two countries together," said Wang. China is now Australia's top trade partner. Their bilateral trade volume reached a record high of $122.3 billion in 2012. The average annual trade growth between them during the past 10 years is 28 percent. Besides, China is a big purchaser of Australia's mining products. Australia still relies heavily on its mining industry.

Guo pointed out that sustaining the U.S.-Australian alliance and cooperating with Washington's strategic deployment will be a common point of understanding between Labor and Conservative parties. Since 2012, Australia has been very active in joining the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade negotiation process, marking Australia's decision to boost economic cooperation with the United States.

"An enlarged TPP that includes emerging regional economies such as China and India will be more beneficial to Australia," said Wang.

Email us at: dingying@bjreview.com

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