MERKEL'S CHALLENGERS: SPD's chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück (right) and the Greens' top candidate Jürgen Trittin jointly attend a press conference in Berlin on December 12, 2012 (MA NING)

The Greens oppose nuclear power, condemn war and advocate environmental protection, while calling for building a just society. Its influence is growing with time. The political stances of the Greens and SPD are similar. Young people not pleased with SPD's right leanings typically turn to the Greens. The Greens propose shutting down a nuclear power station every year until 2021, at which point all nuclear power plants in Germany would be closed. The party won the federal election in 1998 together with SPD, becoming the national ruling party for the first time in its history. There are 17 nuclear power plants in Germany. German voters overwhelmingly support the Greens' stance on closing nuclear power plants, especially since a nuclear leak occurred in Japan after the earthquake on March 11, 2011. In recent years, the party's approval rating has been around 15-16 percent in local parliamentary elections. It has now become the third largest party in the country and the only party that is qualified to form a coalition with either CDU/CSU or SPD.

FDP had been a major party in Germany for a long time after World War II. It used to occupy a flexible position between CDU/CSU and SPD. But since the emergence of the Greens, FDP not only has lost its flexible status, but also seen its approval rating decline to around 3 percent.

The Left was founded in 2007 by merging the Party of Democratic Socialism, an influential party in former East Germany regions, and the Labor and Social Justice Party. Most parties reject the Left and oppose forming a coalition with it. Only in Brandenburg have the Left and SPD formed an administrative coalition, because the two parties have occupied an unbeatable 60.2 percent of the votes. If the two major parties cannot form a coalition with any other small party to win the majority of the parliament, the Left will play a role in the formation of a future government.

Except for the above-mentioned five parties, the Pirate Party, which was established in 2006, is also an influential party. The party vows to support the preservation of civil rights on the Internet. By now, it has seen approval ratings over 5 percent in Berlin, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia parliamentary elections and entered local parliaments. However, its influence has recently been on the decline. If it can enter the federal parliament, it may exert a delicate influence over the coalition pattern between big and small parties.

Election predictions

On February 13, Germany released two reports on the approval ratings of different parties. The report of the Die Zeit weekly newspaper and the Forsa Institute said that CDU has stepped out of the setback in Lower Saxony. Now CDU/CSU's approval rating has reached 43 percent, the highest in seven years. FDP and the Pirate Party failed to get an approval rating above 5 percent. In the meantime, SPD got 25 percent, the Greens 14 percent, and the Left, 7 percent. The statistics show that CDU/CSU has earned a great advantage.

Meanwhile, a report by Das Erste, a principal public TV channel in Germany, released a list of approval ratings: CDU/CSU, 40 percent; SPD, 27 percent; FDP, 4 percent; the Left, 7 percent; the Greens, 16 percent; and the Pirate Party, 3 percent. According to this report, SPD still has some influence in Germany. This year's general election will be a fierce fight.

There are several potential outcomes from the coming general election:

First, two possible combinations will be CDU/CSU plus FDP and SPD plus the Greens. These combinations will be formed on the basis of their similar political stances and their experience with coalitions.

Second, if the combination of a big party plus a small party cannot gather 50 percent of the votes in the federal election, there is a big possibility that the two major parties will organize a coalition government, which has happened before. However, as many disputes exist between them, such a coalition can hardly last long.

Third, according to current poll results, FDP's approval rating is under 5 percent, which makes it difficult for the party to enter the parliament. And then it will be hard for CDU/CSU to form a coalition with FDP. For the SPD, if its approval rating cannot pass 30 percent, it can scarcely win victory with the Greens in the general election. A coalition of one big party plus two small parties is possible, such as black-yellow-green, red-yellow-green or red-red-green. The Left has a slim opportunity to enter the cabinet, but it has a great opportunity to play an influential role in negotiations with related parties in forming a cabinet. Besides, it is still difficult to say whether the Pirate Party can win 5 percent of the votes and enter the parliament.

More than four months remain before the general election. The international situation and the domestic political mood in Germany may change in that time. But the ultimate results of the general election will be included in the three predictions.

The author is a senior research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies

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