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Print Edition> World
UPDATED: November 12, 2012 NO. 46 NOVEMBER 15, 2012
Four More Years
What the world should expect from a second Obama term
By Corrie Dosh
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On trade, Obama has been promoting the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership with 11 countries in Southeast Asia, South America and the Pacific. A final deal could come in 2013, with the United States opening up protected sectors like dairy, sugar and textiles. The administration is expected to continue filing complaints against China with the World Trade Organization, pressured by U.S. companies to boost their competitiveness against Chinese imports.

Jin identified two main challenges concerning the two countries: First, bilateral relations have entered a new stage at a time when strategic mutual trust is urgently needed; and second, new mechanisms are needed to address emerging problems and maintain bilateral relations.

Obama has indicated that he will pursue a policy of partnership with China, but he has a difficult task ahead in convincing the American electorate that China's economic rise does not indicate a U.S. decline. Anti-China rhetoric heated up during the campaign, with Republican challenger Romney threatening to label China a currency manipulator and Obama filing trade disputes against Chinese imports and blocking investment into U.S. wind farms by a Chinese-owned company. Obama may soften his rhetoric now that the campaign is over, but a significant number of Americans believe U.S. debt owned by China represents a serious national security risk.

Overall, though, Obama's reelection is hoped to ease tensions with China. He is seen as taking a softer stance than Romney, who advocated an aggressive policy against China, especially on its currency.

Dealing with hotspots

Obama faces a list of foreign policy and national security issues that have been put on hold during the campaign, atop which is the ongoing civil war in Syria and escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Obama has been reluctant to get involved in Syria, as he ran on a platform of ending wars in the Middle East. Now, however, he may be more committed to intervention as the chaos in Syria could potentially spark a sectarian war engulfing Lebanon, Bahrain and even Saudi Arabia.

Regarding Iran, 2013 could be a decisive year for a "focused and assertive" policy, Brookings' Indyk said.

"It's going to be very high on the agenda," Indyk said. "Preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons is a critical imperative for bolstering the nonproliferation regime."

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has repeatedly said she will step down from her post at the beginning of Obama's second term. The new face of U.S. foreign policy has yet to be named, with John Kerry reportedly aiming for the post. Also on the short list are UN Ambassador Susan Rice and National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, predicts Foreign Policy's Josh Rogin.

Kerry has been chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee since 2009, and has played a leading role in the U.S. response to the turmoil in the Middle East, especially in Syria. Rice is also a heavy favorite for the role, as she has close personal ties to Obama and experience on a wide array of foreign policy matters. She has faced recent criticism for the administration's handling of the attacks on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, and may face a difficult confirmation hearing.

"Star power is important in this position. It's very difficult to follow someone as well liked and capable as Hillary Clinton with the kind of presence she has globally," H. Andrew Schwartz, Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told Reuters.

"It is part of Obama's effort to repair the U.S. image abroad, and he feels that stars can get that done."

The author is a freelance writer in New York City, with reporting by Yu Lintao in Beijing

Email us at: yanwei@bjreview.com

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