Another reason for Israel's conflicts with its neighbors is growing international anti-Israel sentiments. Israel's blockade of Gaza has led to a humanitarian disaster in the region. Arab nations in the Middle East as well as Turkey and Iran, strongly oppose Israel's policy. Some European countries also show sympathy to Gaza residents.

In this context, NGOs' humanitarian assistance to Gaza has received wide international support. This was, in part, why activists from Turkey and other countries tried to break Israel's Gaza blockade on May 31.

Even though Israel never hesitates to use military power, it doesn't want to see conflicts escalate or launch large-scale military actions. Israel's policy is linked to U.S. policy in the Middle East. The Obama administration needs to show that it has made some progress in its foreign policy before the midterm elections.

On August 2, Obama announced that U.S. forces would end all combat operations in Iraq by the end of August, as scheduled. Obama needs a relatively stable environment in the Middle East to help him realize his campaign promise of ending the war in Iraq. In accordance with U.S. policy, Israel also sees to it that conflicts with neighbors do not escalate.

Accommodating U.S. policy

To coordinate with U.S. Middle East policy, Netanyahu agreed to open direct negotiations, without preconditions, with the Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. After the Gaza War in late 2008, Netanyahu hoped to support the Abbas administration to establish an order that allowed cooperation with Israel in the West Bank, while still blocking Gaza. But he didn't want to open negotiations with the Palestinians too soon.

After taking office in 2009, Obama called on Israel and the Palestinians to reopen talks as part of his efforts to improve relations with Arab countries. Netanyahu agreed to reopen negotiations under U.S. pressure, but he is unlikely to give in on fundamental issues.

Netanyahu rejected calls from the United States and the Palestinians to stop the construction of Jewish settlements, saying that his administration might collapse if he were to agree. Compromising a bit, though, Netanyahu's administration declared in November 2009 that it would suspend settlement construction in the West Bank for 10 months.

The Netanyahu administration also used Jewish interest groups in the United States to pressure the White House. To get Jewish votes in the upcoming midterm elections, the Obama administration yielded, telling Abbas not to demand a stop to settlement construction. Netanyahu finally won the game.

Despite incessant conflicts, the situation in the Middle East is still under U.S. and Israeli control. By adopting a tough stance on Jewish settlement construction and launching armed attacks on anti-Israel forces, Netanyahu gained support from the Israeli right wing, thus stabilizing his fragile coalition. Netanyahu would like to sustain the current situation until the U.S. midterm elections.

Israel's future policy hinges on its domestic needs, U.S. regional policy and changes in the regional situation. A key factor is how Israel evaluates threats from Iran and Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Israel believes Iran is close to possessing nuclear weapons, and this is the biggest single threat to Israel's existence. So it has advocated containment against Iran and even prepared to launch military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. If Israel feels the Iranian threat is growing, it might adjust the current policy, which is considered to be relatively moderate.

If Israel wants to launch a military strike against Iran, it must first take military actions to erase threats posed by Lebanon's Hezbollah. Therefore, Israel's policy changes toward Lebanon will be a prelude to its policy changes toward Iran.

The author is an associate research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies