This year, credit will not shrink dramatically. Monetary liquidity will still suffice. It is estimated the M2 increase will hit 18 percent, and new loans will total 8 trillion yuan ($1.17 trillion).
In an effort to realize steady and rapid economic growth in 2010, policymakers should adhere to the following criteria:
1. Macroeconomic policies should focus on domestic demand and sustaining a steady and rapid economic growth. Equal importance should be attached to expanding domestic demand and stabilizing overseas demand. As for expanding domestic demand, especially consumption, unjustified taxations levied on rural and urban residents should be cleared out, and exemption standards for personal income tax should be increased from 2,000 yuan ($294.1) to 3,000 yuan ($441.1) or even higher. National income distribution should also be reformed to adjust the relationship between primary distribution and secondary distribution. What's more, urbanization should be the driving force in enhancing consumption growth.
2. Macroeconomic policies should be adjusted in a timely manner to appropriately deal with the relationship between sustaining, rapid and steady economic growth and inflation expectation management. More flexibility and pertinence should be given to the proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy. Both the fiscal and monetary policies should be open to micro-adjustments in line with changing situations. Moreover, the priority of the fiscal policy should be shifted to expanding consumption and improving people's livelihoods, while the core issue for the monetary policy should be focused on optimizing the credit structure instead of increasing credit quantity.
3. Adjustments to the economic structure should be given a significant position in forming the power growth of the Chinese economy. Currently, the adjustment of the economic structure should be focused on three major aspects. First, consumption should hold a larger share in propelling economic growth in addition to investments and exports. Second, primary, secondary and tertiary industries should achieve coordinated development. Third, the current energy- and resource-oriented economic growth mode should be replaced by one oriented to technological innovation, management improvements and labor force quality.
4. Intensive efforts should be made to advance reforms of the resources and energy price system, the income distribution system, the fiscal and taxation system and the financial system.
5. Priority should be given to cultivating new emerging industries. In a bid to assume the leading role in a new round of international competition, China must develop a series of industries as new economic growth points, such as information technology, new energy, new materials, biological, aeronautical, marine and environment protection industries.
6. Fiscal and financial risks as a result of the large-scale economic stimulus policy should be avoided. The possible risks include decreases in banks' capital adequacy ratios, increasing non-performing credit and a high fiscal deficit. In 2010, inflation expectations should be managed while we stick to the general tone of a loose monetary policy. Introducing a stimulus withdrawal policy could become an option when the timing is right.
7. Monopolies must be broken as soon as possible, and opening to private investment should be a viable alternative to realize sustainable growth. We should further enhance the market reform in monopolized industries and create a fair environment for the competition of private enterprises, state-owned companies and foreign-funded businesses.
8. Importance should be attached to enhancing the country's international economic coordination and cooperation to create a better external environment. China should tighten up cooperation with G20 countries in order to establish a new international financial order, strengthen international cooperation in the effort to prevent trade protectionism and promote free trade, and actively participate in the international cooperation to combat global climate change. |