Because of Western media allegations, neither Myanmar, nor any other Southeast Asian nations, would dare allow Kang Nam 1, the North Korean cargo ship reported to be sailing to Myanmar for trade in weapons, to land ashore.

In the future, it would be extremely difficult for North Korean ships—even those with ordinary goods aboard—to conduct normal transactions with Southeast Asian countries. Besides, Washington could use the opportunity to ratchet up the North Korean nuclear issue as a means to manipulate China and Chinese interests in the region.

Second, the West may intend to further pressure Myanmar with the renewed cause of a "nuclear threat." The United States and other Western countries have long been applying sanctions and pressure on Myanmar based on democracy and human right issues. But these have achieved little effect—and no support from ASEAN countries.

By igniting a Myanmar nuclear issue, which might have a chance of being exaggerated as nuclear proliferation in the future, Western countries could "create" a nuclear-armed Myanmar. Through this, they could dramatize its threat to the region, thus creating an atmosphere of fear and pressure from the international community, including ASEAN. This would leave Myanmar more alone and isolated than it already is.

Furthermore, the United States could achieve its goal of weakening ASEAN and thus take the opportunity to strengthen its control over the organization. By upgrading the Myanmar nuclear issue, the United States will inevitably cause internal conflict among ASEAN countries, notably between Myanmar and Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia—countries that have a history of criticizing Myanmar. This criticism is bound to cause regional tensions.

Third, the West may create a new regional flashpoint in areas southwest of China, thus tying down Beijing's diplomatic resources while erecting barriers to Sino-ASEAN relations.

With the North Korean nuclear issue looming large in Northeast Asia, the heating up of the Myanmar nuclear issue may yet be another big burden in China's international diplomacy. The West clearly intends to create disturbances to drain China's diplomatic energy, leaving it bogged down handling peripheral matters—which, as a result, will leave Beijing with less energy to address global affairs and limit its role in the international arena.

Besides, as the relations between China and Southeast Asian countries have been upgraded, the United States has recently displayed an obvious intention to weaken Beijing's influence with its neighbors to the southeast.

The great clamor over Myanmar's nuclear issue will bring heavy new challenges to Sino-Myanmar and Sino-ASEAN relations. China will therefore face more difficulties in balancing its relations with its neighboring countries and with the West.

Will Myanmar obtain its own nuclear weapons? That's quite a question.

Nonetheless, the cloud surrounding Myanmar's nuclear ambitions will continue to expand, so long as the West keeps playing up its rumors and reveals more shocking news. U.S. nuclear non-proliferation experts have called on the IAEA to launch an investigation on Myanmar. The U.S. Government may also exert further pressure on the IAEA, and even bring the issue before the UN Security Council.

So when it comes to Myanmar's nuclear issue, as with the mushroom clouds of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, any slightest misunderstanding could easily end up in another U.S. invasion.

NEW MARKET: Shoppers queue to enter the first modern shopping mall in Naypyidaw, capital of Myanmar, on August 16. Myanmar is still one of the poorest countries in the world (CHEN MEIHUA)

The author is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of South and Southeast Asian Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations