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Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: March 24, 2009 NO. 12 MAR. 26, 2009
MARKET WATCH NO. 12, 2009
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"China will further open its doors to foreign investment that helps boost domestic demand and creates numerous jobs," Yao said.

"A number of multinationals have yanked their money out of China to meet funding demands at home," said Zhuang Jian, a senior economist at the Asian Development Bank, in an interview with Xinhua News Agency. "But from the long-term perspective, they are bound to return to China, where a vibrant economy brings juicy returns."

World Bank Cautiously Optimistic

Although the global financial crisis has pushed most developed countries into a sharp recession, the World Bank sees China as a bright spot in the dim global economic landscape.

China's economy will largely hold up in 2009 and absorb steam from one dose of the government's various stimulus packages after another, the bank said in its latest quarterly update issued on March 18.

The global recession is believed to be dragging down the world's third largest economy, mainly in exports, market-based investment and business sentiment. But "China's economy, with a solid fundamental, is still likely to outgrow most other countries and has plenty of scope to put in place forceful stimulus measures," the bank said.

Yet, given the severity of the economic downturn, the bank still downgraded its projection for China's GDP growth to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the 7.5-percent growth rate it had predicted last November.

The forecast comes after the Chinese Government vowed to fight for at least 8-percent growth this year in the government work report delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao earlier this month.

"Lower overall growth is not likely to jeopardize China's economy or social stability, especially if the adverse consequences can be limited via the social safety net, preferably combined with education," the report said.

The World Bank also praised the country's national drive to precipitate a shift of the economy from exports to one that relies more on domestic consumption.

"It will help to provide immediate stimulus while laying the foundation for more sustainable growth in the future," said David Dollar, the World Bank's Country Director for China, in the report.

The rebalancing efforts are already taking effect reflected by fairly resilient private consumption, although it is still too early to forecast a broader recovery, the bank said.

Chinalco's Concerns

China Aluminum Corp. (Chinalco) faces some uncertainty with its plan to purchase Australian mining company Rio Tinto Group in a $19.5-billion deal.

On March 14, Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) said it was extending its review of Chinalco's offer for up to 90 days as domestic concerns grew about whether the deal was in line with the national interests of Australia.

Rio Tinto expected to bring the deal to a shareholder vote in May or June after winning approval from the FIRB, but now the regulatory delay has added uncertainty to the much-anticipated deal. Rio Tinto has reportedly been considering whether it should raise the approval threshold from 50 percent to 75 percent at the shareholder vote.

According to the deal announced last month, Chinalco would buy minority stakes in debt-ridden Rio Tinto's prime iron ore, copper and aluminum assets, as well as convertible bonds that could double its interest in the Australian mining company to 18 percent.

However, domestic analysts have reassured investors that the review's delay was actually not unexpected given the unprecedented scope and complexity of the deal. It is still highly likely that the agreement in the end could pass the scrutiny since it helps relieve Rio Tinto's financial burdens, they said.

So far, Rio Tinto has declined to comment on the regulatory delay, but repeated in a statement that a closer relationship with Chinalco would give it access to cheaper financing and a doorway to China's mineral market.

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