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Print Edition> World
UPDATED: February 13, 2009 NO. 7 FEB. 19, 2009
The Next Chapter
Under the Obama administration, China and the United States will increase their contact-and the potential for clashes
By ROSEANNE GERIN
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Yet observers believe that Obama's words have done nothing to allay Chinese fears of a trade war between the countries, in particular because of the U.S. administration's stance on China's currency policy. Deng Yuwen, an associate senior editor at the Study Times, a journal published by the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, wrote in a commentary in China Daily on February 6, "Given U.S. President Barack Obama's previous stance on China's exchange rate and the nearly unanimous bipartisan consensus on this issue, the new U.S. administration is likely to launch a trade war as a punishment to China. The extent of China's reaction to the U.S. action will directly decide the magnitude of the trade dispute between the two countries."

Protectionist pressure

Given the interdependency of the American and Chinese economies, international affairs experts and diplomats on both sides agree that the two countries must work together now more than ever to weather the current global financial turbulence.

The countries' two-way trade volume is worth more than $300 billion today compared to $2.4 billion in the early days of their renewed diplomatic relations three decades ago, according to Dai Bingguo, State Councilor and Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs. Because of the global financial crisis, Dai said Obama would have to confront calls for increased trade protectionism from some members of Congress, as well as political pressure from organized labor groups concerned about the loss of American jobs to China. Dai made his remarks in a speech marking the 30th anniversary of Sino-American relations at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. on December 11, 2008.

The biggest challenge for Obama will be to resist pressure to adopt more protectionist measures in light of the economic crisis, said J. Stapleton Roy, U.S. Ambassador to China from 1991 to 1995. He made his remarks during an interview on Chinese state broadcaster CCTV's "Dialogue," which aired on January 13.

The United States and China must proceed together to overcome the crisis and its effects, said John Holden, Managing Director of the Beijing office of public relations firm Hill & Knowlton Inc., on "Dialogue" last month.

"We are economically interdependent, and it benefits no one to beggar thy neighbor," Holden said, referring to the international trade practice in which one country devalues its currency to make its exports cheaper for other nations and uses trade barriers to protect its economy at the expense of other countries.

Other members of the American business community who do business in China want Obama to take international business policies with the country a step further. Thomas Donohue, President and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington, suggested that the American president focus on creating "a strong interdependent investors' relationship" between the two countries so American investors can gain access to certain markets in China that have more or less been closed to them, such as the financial and hi-tech markets. He made his comments during a speech in Beijing on January 13.

Not just economics

Aside from economic and trade issues, former and current diplomats and other foreign policy experts have pondered whether big changes are in store for Sino-American military, energy and political policies. They all agree that the countries must continue working closely together in these areas.

Former and current diplomats from both countries generally hold positive views for bilateral relations under Obama. Zhou Wenzhong, China's Ambassador to the United States, said in an interview with "Dialogue" last month that the Chinese looked forward to working with the new American administration.

"We have reason to believe the new administration will continue a positive bipartisan China policy," he said.

Many say the Obama administration must continue working with China on the North Korea issue and efforts to dismantle its nuclear program under the six-party talks. The discussions have been stalled since last December. China and the United States also must continue working together on the Iranian nuclear issue, counterterrorism measures and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, they said.

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