Livni also needs to unite Kadima leaders around her, Hu said. After Sharon's stroke in 2006, Livni modestly supported Olmert as his successor. He is repaying her now by supporting her while staying on as caretaker prime minister. However, Livni defeated her closest opponent in the Kadima leadership election by just over 1 percent. If Livni cannot work well with other Kadima leaders, it will jeopardize her policies in the new government.

"It is very likely that Livni will successfully organize a new cabinet," said Wang, but the new cabinet will face the same problems Olmert did. In addition, Livni might be defeated in the next election by a more experienced military leader like Barak, who served as prime minister from 1999 to 2001. Wang added that the bigger challenge for Livni right now is advancing the Middle East peace process.

An uncertain future for peace talks

Critics believe that if Livni successfully forms a new cabinet, the pace of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks will stay the same or even accelerate. Otherwise, the situation will remain uncertain at least until the general election next spring. Palestinians recently argued that Israeli government instability is an important reason peace talks have stagnated.

As foreign minister, Livni led several rounds of negotiations with the Palestinians, making efforts to advance the Middle East peace process that resumed at the Annapolis Conference last November. However, there was no breakthrough. Even though Livni is considered a "dove" and has promised to push peace talks forward, experts point out that many uncertainties still surround future peace in the Middle East.

Hu said that during the Olmert administration, boundary lines, the status of Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees' right of return were the three main issues blocking the peace talks. The gap between the two sides on these problems is quite wide.

In addition, the situation inside Palestine is unstable. Previously, Fatah and Hamas occupied the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, respectively, and occasionally attacked each other. Since July, when several explosions rocked Gaza City, clashes and conflicts between the two parties have become even more furious and hopes for reconciliation have dimmed, Hu said. Moreover, Hamas, which controls the legislature and is an indispensable party to the peace talks, has a terrible relationship with Israel. Even if the Livni government and Fatah conclude an agreement by the end of 2008, as called for at the Annapolis Conference, it would be worthless without Hamas involvement, Hu said.

Both Hu and Wang agreed that there are still several reasons to hope. The first is the United States has adopted a more neutral and realistic stance. In the past, the United States sided completely with Israel, while nowadays it would rather play the role of mediator than Israeli supporter. Americans, the Israelis and the Palestinians all now support a two-state solution. On September 25, U.S. President George W. Bush met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the White House and said that Washington would continue to work with Palestinian leaders for a peaceful solution to the conflict.

Second, both the Israelis and the Palestinians are committed to a peaceful solution despite their differences. In a September 23 meeting with the chief Palestinian peace negotiator, Livni said she would continue the peace process while she forms a new government.

The third reason is growing concern in the international community. Since early 2008, heads or high-ranking officials from Britain, France, Germany and the United States have visited Israel and Palestine and expressed their desire for progress.

"Israeli leaders are actually very clear that peace talks are the only solution to realize permanent pacification and stability between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples. They just try to gain more advantages through negotiations when Israel is the stronger party," Wang said. In addition to more territory and control over Jerusalem, some Israeli leaders demand greater access to Palestinian water resources and expanded settlements in better locations.

Although Livni is considered a "dove" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Wang stressed that when dealing with issues related to national interests, no politician could be a dove. "If she will be a dove, then she must be a dove with an eagle's beak and claws," he said.

Wang said that final peace would not come unless Israel makes some compromises under a leader with wisdom, farsightedness and an open mind. "Based on Livni's history of sticking firmly to her principles, she is not such a person," Wang said. Wang concluded that some Israeli leaders have yet to realize that peaceful coexistence and common development are best for both sides. "Maybe Israelis cannot understand this until they pay a great enough price in blood," he said.