Surges in the prices of global commodities have pushed up the costs of domestic agricultural production. Based on current prices, the cost of grain production per mu (666.7 square meters) has increased by 60 yuan ($8.8) this year. The cost of livestock breeding also is increasing because of soaring feed prices.

Rural migrant workers also have been taking a hit on the employment front. Many export-oriented enterprises in coastal east China have been cutting jobs and paring down their production to offset the impact of cost inflation. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of the country's rural migrant workers in the first half of this year grew 5.8 percent year on year, 2.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Analysts say this will make a dent in farmers' total income, a big portion of which comes from migrant workers.

Big natural disasters that dealt a blow to the agricultural sector this year also have hurt rural income levels, Sun said. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the direct economic loss to agriculture caused by the snowstorm early this year at around 94 billion yuan ($13.8 billion). Worse still, the overwhelming Sichuan earthquake in May devastated more than 110,000 hectares of farmland, damaged 320,000 hectares of crops, and caused in excess of 40 billion yuan ($5.9 billion) in direct economic losses in the hardest-hit areas.

In sharp contrast to the bleak outlook for farmers, the income of urban residents is heading for steady growth. This would further add to difficulties in reducing the urban-rural divide, Sun said.

Economists believe that only the removal of the social system barriers can help reverse the further widening of the urban-rural income gap. Some government departments and research institutions have made initial probes into the future reform of the rural system. In late August, the State Council gave a report on promoting farmers' income to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. Earlier this month, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a conference on integrating the development of the country's rural and urban economies.

Analysts say all these moves are good preparations for system reform in the countryside. Li Yining, a renowned economist, said at the conference that the government would make it a priority to remove the social barriers that choke rural development by economically integrating urban and rural areas in the future.