and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, Crimea's separation from Ukraine and Transnistria's separation from Moldova. Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is bound to disrupt international law and may lead to a new separatist wave in the CIS.

Russia on the rise

The Russia-Georgia conflict reflects Russia's rise in international power and its efforts to fight the containment policy of the United States and other Western countries. In recent years, Russia has cozied up to Europe and the United States but failed to get a positive response from them. Its geopolitical situation has deteriorated: Not only has Russia made hardly any progress in its relations with the United States, but its relations with Europe have also shown little improvement given their strategic differences. The United States and Europe continue to portray Russia as deviant, in accordance with their longstanding policy of containing and weakening the country. Both NATO and the EU have expanded eastward, besieging Russia. The United States also fueled "color revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, worsening Russia's security environment in the south.

Against this backdrop, Russia has redefined its role in the international community by relying on its economic clout. "Russia today is a global player," Medvedev said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June. "We want to participate in shaping the new rules of the game." There is evidence that Medvedev and Putin are spearheading Russia's effort to become a major world power in the new era. It was obvious that Russia was well prepared when Medvedev signed the decrees to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Nevertheless, a cold war between the United States and Russia is unlikely, because the former has strategic demands on the latter. The two countries identified priorities for their cooperation in the U.S.-Russia Strategic Framework Declaration signed in April. In terms of promoting security, the United States and Russia will develop a legally binding post-START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) arrangement, build a joint missile defense system, cooperate in defense technology and address serious differences in areas where their policies do not coincide. In terms of preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, they vowed to strengthen the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, resolve the Iranian nuclear issue through political and diplomatic efforts, and realize the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula within the framework of the six-party talks. In terms of combating global terrorism, they underlined the importance of bilateral cooperation and multilateral initiatives. Although the United States reassessed its policy toward Russia after the Russia-Georgia conflict, Washington needs Moscow's help in dealing with non-traditional security threats and interfering in "evil regimes." Russia believes that the United States stands to lose if it stops cooperating with Russia on such international issues as Iran's nuclear program.

With all its vested interests in Russia, Europe also cannot afford to treat Russia too harshly. Europe is highly dependent on Russia for its energy supply. According to estimates, Russia will provide the EU with 22 percent of its oil imports and 60 percent of its natural gas imports by 2015. The EU and Russia also have common security interests. Neither wants the Caucasus region to become mired in conflict or serve as the frontline in a new cold war. Russia knows well that the condemnations from Western governments are only verbal attacks, not real security threats. Russian leaders believe that NATO needs Russia more than the other way around. In April, Russia and NATO reached an agreement, under which Russia will allow NATO to ship military materials to Afghanistan via the Russian territory. Frozen relations would put a halt to the agreement, forcing NATO to explore other shipping routes.

In general, it is impossible for the West to shun Russia in international affairs. Russia re-emerged and established a strong presence on the world stage during Putin's eight-year presidency. On August 28, it successfully test-fired an intercontinental Topol missile designed to overcome anti-missile systems. On the same day, Putin announced a poultry import ban on 19 U.S. companies. With regard to the Russia-Georgia conflict, Medvedev has passed the ball to the West. "We are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a new cold war," he said after signing the decrees recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.