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Business
Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: September 1, 2008 No.36 SEP.4, 2008
Golden Prospects
Chinese banks come out on top by remaining virtually untouched by the global financial downturn
By HU YUE
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Analysts also say Chinese banks have been largely unaffected by the subprime mortgage crisis, because the bulk of their revenues come from domestic deposits and loans. But Vincent Cheng, Chairman of HSBC, told China Business News that banks, overly dependent on a single source of income, are vulnerable to outside risks.

Kevin Watts, President of Merrill Lynch & Co., also echoed Zheng's opinion, saying that Chinese banks should diversify their investment channels to hedge against risks while at the same time cement their overseas earning capacities to compete with foreign peers.

Domestic banks expect to see their growth taper off when the Chinese economy starts to slow down. In the meantime, the government has tightened its quotas on loans to fight off inflation; but this move could end up squeezing the banks' margins.

Besides this, home buyers in some cities could default on their mortgage payments if the market values of their homes shrink to amounts that are less than their total mortgage payments as a result of dropping home prices. As a result, the banks could see an increase in their non-performing loans, which would hurt their asset quality, analysts said.

Moreover, individual savers, put off by the country's bearish stock market, may prefer to keep their money in banks for longer terms to receive higher interests. This also would cast a shadow over the banks' profit prospects, analysts said.

But Chinese bankers remain optimistic about their performance for the rest of the year. China Securities Co. Ltd. said in a report that domestic commercial banks could still retain their profit growth with the help of domestic credit businesses.

ICBC Chairman Jiang said that the bank would keep optimizing its asset and income structures and tap other fields such as securities and insurance, which would help it maintain its growth momentum for profit.

CCB also projected in its interim report that its profit in the second half would continue to grow and pledged to improve its performance by increasing share incentives for its staff.

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