|
When he met with leaders from South Ossetia and Abkhazia on August 14 to discuss a ceasefire, Medvedev said that Russia would respect any choice they made in accordance with the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act. It is foreseeable that, with Russia's strong support, the two regions will go further down the path to independence. Georgia's attempts at peaceful negotiation will get no response from the two regions with Russian troops blocking Georgia from military reoccupation.
Russia and Georgia also have divergent strategic interests. Georgia is a small country in the Caucasus region that has limited diplomatic space, but it is caught between superpowers. Saakashvili entered office with U.S. support in 2004, after the bloodless Rose Revolution swept the previous government from power. In exchange, he chose diplomatic policies that favored Washington over Moscow. These policies placed Georgia's security and prosperity entirely in Western hands, neglecting the country's gigantic neighbor. Georgia is also seeking membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which would guarantee Western military protection from foreign incursion. Georgian membership in NATO threatens Russia's strategic and security interests, however, by introducing U.S. and NATO influence into the Caucasus region, and could lead to military conflict between Russia and U.S.-led NATO. In the recent South Ossetia war, it seemed that Georgia intended to involve the United States, NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) so as to restrict Russian peacekeeping troops or drive them out of the country and test Russia's reaction. Russia's military retaliation was actually a warning against Saakashvili's pro-West policies.
|
About South Ossetia And Abkhazia
South Ossetia and Abkhazia are two autonomous republics in Georgia. South Ossetia is located in the Southern Caucasus and neighbors Russia's North Ossetia-Alania. It covers 39,000 square km with a population of 72,000. In 1922, South Ossetia was established as an autonomous province of Georgia. It declared itself a "democratic republic" in 1991, with plans to join the Russian Federation. When the region held a referendum on independence in 1992, totally 98 percent voted yes. But these independence claims never received recognition from Georgia or the international community. Recent years have seen frequent disputes between South Ossetia and the Georgian Government on independence issues, occasionally turning violent. In 1992, Russia and Georgia signed an agreement to guarantee the ceasefire between South Ossetia and the Georgian Government and impose a peacekeeping force formed by Russia, Georgia and North Ossetia-Alania. |
Shaking ties
Although the conflict mainly concerned Georgia and Russia, it has had implications for relations among Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine. Moreover, as the situation has drawn comparisons to Kosovo-earlier this year, Vladimir Putin criticized the United States and Europe for supporting independence for Kosovo but not South Ossetia-seemingly disparate regional conflicts are becoming increasingly interconnected.
The first result of the conflict in South Ossetia is a strained relationship between the United States and Russia. The past month has seen extremely active interaction between Washington and Tbilisi. In July, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Georgia and the two countries conducted a joint military exercise. Rice came to Georgia on August 15, calling for a full and immediate Russian withdrawal. In the meantime, the United States helped withdraw 2,000 Georgian soldiers from Iraq to supplement Georgia's insufficient military forces at home. In observing Washington's full support for Georgia, Russia cannot help but suspect the motives behind it. Therefore, if the United States required Russia to pull its remaining peacekeepers from South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia would firmly reject it. Now the United States is providing Georgia emergency humanitarian aid, which Russia suspects includes weapons. Under these circumstances, people have reason to worry that the conflicts in Georgia might turn into direct or indirect disputes between the United States and Russia.
The relationship between Russia and the EU has also become more complicated. The EU chose to stand with Georgia and the United States, taking a diplomatic stance of making concessions to avoid trouble. French and German leaders paid urgent visits to Russia on August 12 and 14, aimed first at calling a ceasefire, then at arranging for the EU and OSCE to organize regional peacekeeping. Polish President Lech Aleksander Kaczynski came to Tbilisi to express sympathy and support for Georgia. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko declared that his country would not allow Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which leases Ukrainian ports, to send warships to attack Georgia. Furthermore, if the Russian fleet wanted to leave port, it would have to submit an application 72 hours in advance.
The situation in Georgia also poses challenges to international law. South Ossetia and Abkhazia intend to be independent or join Russia. This will not only undermine Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also violate the Helsinki Final Act, a 1975 agreement that guaranteed the security and stability of Europe after World War II. The Act says that all signatory states shall respect existing borders.
In early 2008, Kosovo declared independence from Serbia. The United States and large European countries supported the announcement, while Putin strongly condemned it as a dangerous precedent that would encourage separatist movements throughout the world and shake the post-Cold War international order. South Ossetia and Abkhazia argued that the "Kosovo model" could work elsewhere and hastened their steps toward independence, now drawing superpowers like Russia, the United States and the EU into their conflicts.
The author is a researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations |
