when he made a deal with the North Koreans, he said. Because there are more than 30 days before the final decision can be made, the result could be influenced by North Korea's unpredictable actions, Shen said.

Not just the Americans

Shi said domestic situations in Japan and South Korea could influence the denuclearization process as well. Japan has been tough on the nuclear issue, insisting that North Korea first should resolve the dispute over the kidnapping of Japanese citizens during the 1970s and 1980s. Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who intends to reform his cabinet after an early election next year, faces great pressure from hardliners who insist on resolving the kidnapping issue first. Fukuda must show a tough stance on the nuclear issue to get their votes. Besides, it is not certain that Fukuda's party will win the next elections, Shi said.

Shi noted that when Roh Moo Hyun was president between 2003-2008, South Korea played an active role in advancing the denuclearization process. But since Lee Myung Bak came to power, the country has been fairly passive on the nuclear issue and insists that if Pyongyang does not take practical action, it will stop offering economic aid. The shooting of a female South Korean tourist on July 11 triggered an additional dispute on the peninsula.

"This affair surely will have some negative effects on denuclearization, but if the two sides can make some compromises such as North Korea accepting investigations, the influence can be minimized," Shi said.

Because Japan and South Korea have not been very proactive on the nuclear issue, they likely will accept the agreements of the six-party talks and fulfill related commitments, Shi said.

"If they refuse to do so, North Korea will happily turn the multilateral negotiations into a bilateral one between the United States and itself, which will deprive Japan and South Korea of having a say on this issue," he said.

Press communiqué of the Heads of Delegation Meeting of the Sixth Round of the Six-party Talks

The heads of delegation meeting of the sixth round of the six-party talks issued a press communiqué on July 12 after reaching a consensus on the full and balanced implementation of the second-phase actions.

-To establish a verification mechanism within the six-party talks framework to verify the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which consists of experts on the six parties and is responsible to the Working Group on Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Measures of the verification mechanism include visits to facilities, a review of documents, interviews with technical personnel and other measures unanimously agreed upon among the six parties. The International Atomic Energy Agency is welcome to provide consultancy and assistance for relevant verification of the verification mechanism when necessary. The Working Group on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will be the mechanism to decide the specific plans and implementation of the verification according to the principle of consensus.

-To establish a monitoring mechanism within the six-party talks framework that consists of the heads of delegation of the six parties. The monitoring mechanism is to guarantee that all parties realize their respective commitments made within the six-party talks framework, including non-proliferation and economic and energy assistance to North Korea.

-To agree on a timetable for economic and energy assistance along with the dismantling of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities. North Korea's dismantling of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities and the other parties' assistance in the form of heavy fuel oil (HFO) and non-HFO to North Korea will be fully implemented in parallel. All parties will make an effort to complete their assistance to North Korea by the end of October 2008, and North Korea will work to complete the dismantling of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities by the end of October 2008.

-To continue with their discussions on the "Guiding Principles of Peace and Security in Northeast Asia."

-To advance the six-party talks progress in a comprehensive manner and work together for lasting peace and stability in Northeast Asia.

(Source: Xinhua News Agency)