
This year, a global economic recession, triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, seems unavoidable. To tackle international financial problems, Tao Dong, Chief Economist for Asia at Credit Suisse First Boston in Hong Kong, shared his insights with China Business Journal. Excerpts follow.
China Business Journal: At present, the U.S. economy is entering a period of recession. Will the U.S. economic downturn reverse the development trend of the global economy?
Tao Dong: Diversification of the world economic model creates more opportunities for development rather than a downturn.
In the past decade, the United States was the only economic superpower in the world and was backed mostly by consumption. During that period, U.S. financial capitalism boomed, while Japan and the EU experienced structural economic problems. But a major change has taken place. A number of economies beyond the three major traditional economic powers have arisen, with competitive exports and strong domestic demands.
The first ones are the direct beneficiaries of globalization. China and India are two examples. The second ones are the resource exporting nations, such as Brazil, Russia and the Gulf countries. Those countries finished their primitive accumulation of capital by exporting, and their domestic consumption is now booming. Therefore, emerging markets, especially the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries, provide the world economy with more distribution opportunities, and the global economic development momentum has been diversified. In other words, U.S. consumers are no longer the only contributors to world economic growth. Consumers from developing countries whose salaries have increased substantially also account for a large portion of the consumption that drives world economic development.
What are the other features and impacts of global economic development?
First, in the past 10 years, the world's economic development was relatively stable. Even though fluctuations existed, their impacts were limited, and the economy was easy to recover. It started with Alan
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