Judging from the ongoing situation, the United States will stick to its deployment plan in Eastern Europe despite Russia's strong opposition. In response to the U.S. obstinacy, Russia has a few alternatives regarding the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), the issue of further reducing its strategic offensive weapons and non-proliferation. But it is left with limited room to maneuver.

Russia declared a moratorium on the CFE Treaty last July. Whether it will eventually back out of this treaty makes no significant difference. On the issue of reducing strategic offensive weapons, Russia is placed in a dilemma. On the one hand, faced with the development and deployment of the anti-missile system in Eastern Europe by the United States, it needs to expand its strategic nuclear arsenal for fear of greater disequilibrium in terms of strategic forces.

For example, it suspended its implementation of SALT II last year. On the other hand, Russia seeks to reach new agreements with the United States on the reduction of strategic weapons and decreasing the number of strategic weapons of both countries to a level lower than SALT II. That's because its existing nuclear arsenal is hard to sustain in light of its economic conditions. Nevertheless, substantial negotiations are yet to be started owing to America's reluctance to have restraints imposed on its development of strategic weapons.

Russia may choose to invest in more advanced strategic missiles, enhance its anti-missile penetration capabilities and possibly deploy high-precision conventional ballistic missiles targeting the U.S. anti-missile base in Eastern Europe. This option will help it effectively countervail the United States and will be unlikely to cause widespread instability.