The Democratic Party's advantages are being lost as the soap opera of Clinton and Obama continues. Opinion surveys show that the approval rating of McCain has risen 10 percentage points from November last year, whereas the ratings of Obama and Clinton have dropped 5 percentage points respectively. Despite the fact that the Democratic Party leads the Republic Party at 54 percent to 42 percent in popular support, the gap between McCain and his two Democratic rivals is being narrowed. If the trend persists, Democrats may encounter a similar situation to 1972 when Richard Nixon defeated Democratic candidate George McGovern in all the states but one. Discontented with McGovern, many Democrats voted for Nixon, while securing their party a victory in the congressional election. This means that the Democrats voted for their party but not for its presidential candidate.

The Democrats are currently trying to think of ways to end this drawn out drama. Some proposed that Clinton and Obama join hands, which was rejected by both. Several influential public figures suggested that super delegates take cognizance of public opinion, with the intention of qualifying Obama for the presidential nomination at an early date. But big donors were quick to compose a joint letter urging them to exercise their right of "free choice" to preserve Clinton's chances. Super delegates are members of the House of Representatives and Senate, state governors, members of the Democratic National Committee and other unpledged delegates who are free to vote at the Democratic National Convention. Now that both candidates represent complex political interests, it seems that their wrangling will not be settled until the August convention.

Breaking the cycle?

For most ordinary Chinese, the U.S. presidential election is no more than a sensational "drama" presented to them by the media. But China cannot afford to view the election as an outsider, in the context of today's globalization, when China and the United States are highly interdependent.

China-U.S. relations have been affected by two cycles since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1979. The "small cycle" was exemplified by the deliberations on whether to grant China the most favored nation status before June every year in the 1990s. Since China entered the World Trade Organization and gained permanent normal trade relations with the United States in 2001, accusations against China's growing military expenditure, human rights record and trade surplus with the United States have emerged from March to June every year. This is done via the release of U.S. Department of Defense's annual report on China's military power and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission's annual report to Congress.

The "large cycle" refers to the U.S. presidential election every four years. In the past three decades, almost every presidential election in the United States has led to a "China syndrome." While campaigning for presidency, opposition candidates always accuse the administration of showing weakness toward China in an attempt to cultivate their tough image. After winning the elections, the pattern follows bilateral relations plunging to a low point because of hard-line policies toward China and then recovering and climbing to a new height in the middle and late phases of presidential terms. The "large cycle" was evident in the transitions from Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan in 1981, from George H. W. Bush to Bill Clinton in 1993 and from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush in 2001. Fluctuations in China-U.S. relations were avoided only when Bush senior took over the reins from Reagan in 1989, both men being Republicans.

China-U.S. relations moved into a period of stable development following the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. To date, this momentum has lasted for nearly seven years. The then U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, said on ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulos on March 15, 2004, "We've got the best relationship with China that we've had in 20 years." Chinese scholars have different interpretations of Powell's remarks and the extraordinary stability exhibited in China-U.S. relations in recent years. Those who are optimistic believe that China and the United States have moved their relationship from a cyclic one to one that is more interdependent in structure. Cautious observers say that "structural conflicts" underlying the bilateral relations have yet to be resolved. They argue that stable China-U.S. relations, which have been achieved because of America's shift in its strategic focus away from China to antiterrorism and the Middle East, are only temporary.