Zhao said that after Georgia believed it fell under the protection of the West, it has been more confident in light of Russia's actions. Conversely, Russia, a traditional large and influential country in the region, and a growing world power, was hurt by Georgia's disdain toward its demands.

Dim prospects

While there is little sign of either Russia or Georgia changing their stance on the latter's joining NATO, analysts see a status quo remaining between the two countries, with tensions neither developing into full-scale conflict nor easing up.

Zhao said the future of Russian-Georgian relations is very dim. "We come to this conclusion after analyzing the disputes between them in recent years." For example, in late September 2006, four Russian military officers in the Russian Embassy in Georgia were arrested on espionage charge. This incident led to Russia slapping economic sanctions on Georgia, said Zhao.

However, there had been a thawing of the freeze between Moscow and Tbilisi earlier this year. A report in China News Service, China's second largest news agency, said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili met for talks during the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit held in late February in the Belarus capital city of Minsk. Then, air, sea and land transportation was restored after an 18-month break off and Russia expressed that it would withdraw economic sanction from Georgia. "Georgia's NATO involvement soon stopped these steps of reconciliation from Russia," said Zhao.

Russia ranked up its support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia independence, a move that has seen Georgia appeal to the United Nations for help. On April 23, after a meeting of the UN Security Council, four Western countries, Britain, France, Germany and the United States, issued a joint communiqué calling on Russia to stop strengthening relations with the two Georgian regions. Xinhua News Agency reports that this show of support from Europe and the United States for Georgia enraged Russia, which rejected the call and criticized the West's double standards on the Georgia and Kosovo issue. The report said that the Georgian Government has warned that it might take retaliatory steps, including military actions, against Russia's "invasive" moves.

Georgia now completely has leaned to the Western side, which decided its opposite stance against Russia, said Zhao. "Georgia has put its foot on the threshold of NATO, while Russia is trying to prevent Georgia from stepping in. Their conflicts are doomed." He also predicted that disputes between the two nations might upgrade recently, because there is very limited leeway for either side.

Economic ties remain strong

But despite the external rhetoric, Zhao said that economic ties between Russia and Georgia are still relatively strong, indicating that military conflict was a long-term possibility only. There are at least 1 million Georgians now working and living inside Russia, bringing more than $2 billion in foreign exchange back to Georgia every year. However, the disputes have in fact made a dent in trade volumes. Russia was Georgia's top trade partner, but in 2007, it had slipped to the fourth place. According to statistics from China's Ministry of Commerce, the bilateral trade volume between the two during the first two months of 2008 was $65.03 million, decreasing 47 percent over the same period of 2007. Georgia's export volume to Russia was $2.03 million during that time, down 63 percent. Yet Russia is indispensable to Georgia's trade and economy as well as its energy supply. And the tense bilateral relationship is hurting economic interests of both sides.

Zhao said that Russia is doing all it can to keep Georgia inside the CIS, so as to gain more time and try to blunt its gravitation to Western alignment. From a Western perspective, it is hoped that the Russian-Georgian relationship does not slide into chaos, as this will influence their global strategy, he said.