Feng pointed out that since August 2007, the volume of imports has not fluctuated significantly, but from November, prices of imported goods have increased fast. For example, import prices for soybeans and crude oil increased in February compared with January.

Chen also shared similar opinions. "The growth of import value does not represent an increase in the amount of imports," he said. "Price hikes contribute an important reason for the increase of import value this year."

According to Chen, compared with the same period last year, overall prices of imported goods increased 14.8 percent in January. During the first two months, prices of the five most important imported goods-crude oil, refined oil, iron ore, soybeans and edible oil-soared 60-80 percent over the past year, driving up the total import value by 12 percentage points.

Subprime bust, caution …

"Strong Chinese exports are now influenced by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States," said Ha Jiming, chief economist of China International Capital Corp. Ltd.

According to Ha, because of the economic recession in the United States, U.S. domestic consumption has slackened. Since October 2007, the growth of China's exports to the United States has decreased, sliding from 11.9 percent in November to 6.8 percent in December, 5.3 percent in January this year, and finally a negative 5.3 percent in February. "This indicates that the slowdown of the U.S. economy is affecting China's exports," Ha continued.

The influences of the subprime mortgage crisis are not limited to the United States. Over time, the U.S. economic recession will have greater impacts on other economies and further influence China's exports.

In fact, indications can be seen from the sharp drop of growth of China's exports to its major trading partners in February. During this month, growth of China's exports to the EU and Japan stood at 1.2 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, which were 32.1 percentage points and 10.5 percentage points lower than the rates in January. Growth of China's exports to India, Russia and Brazil came to 28 percent, 28.4 percent and 45.1 percent, respectively, down 34.7 percentage points, 37.8 percentage points and 38.9 percentage points over January. Growth of exports to these countries is influenced by the subprime mortgage crisis to some extent.

"The depreciation of the U.S. dollar leads to the over-valuation of dollar-nominated Chinese exports," said Yang Fan, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "Deducting exchange rate factors, China's exports to Europe, the United States and Japan were decreasing. Risks of export decline must be watched closely."

No turning point

Increased growth rates for imports and decreased growth rates for exports have led to a narrowing trade surplus. Because of this, some people contend that there will be a "turning point" for the trend of Chinese foreign trade.

Zhang Zhigang, President of the China Foreign Trade Center, thinks that the figures of just one month are not representative. "Statistics from February tend to have large fluctuations," he said. "Changes in this month cannot prove that it is a turning point."

Feng Yuming, chief analyst of Orient Securities Co. Ltd., also believes that figures in February may be seasonal and cannot reflect the real situation. The Spring Festival holiday and the snowstorms may influence the economic figures.

According to Feng, March 2007 figures were also affected by the Spring Festival. Export growth that month greatly decreased to 6.9 percent from 51.7 percent in the previous month and the trade surplus declined to $6.87 billion from $23.76 billion in February 2007.

China's exports rebound every year after the Spring Festival. Because of this, Hao Daming estimates that in March this year, China's exports will return to a more normal posture.

Chen believes that China's exports will keep stable growth throughout the year.

"This year, there will be a lot of uncertainties influencing imports and exports," Chen said. "The Ministry of Commerce will adopt flexible countermeasures in line with the needs of macro-control."