British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in January he supported China to join the Group of Eight (G8). His words echoed those of French President Nicolas Sarkozy who suggested that the five developing countries of China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico be included in the G8.

Talk of including these countries actually started several years ago. Ever since 2003 when China first participated in a G8 summit, many politicians and economists have discussed the possibility of the country becoming a full-fledged G8 member. Canada, for example, has made similar suggestions as well.

The G8's current members are Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States and Russia.

Foreign affairs analysts believe that although China will not join the G8 any time soon, its participation would benefit the country and the organization itself in terms of strategic considerations. But they also caution that China must determine how much it would be willing to comply with other requirements set by the group's Western members.

"China will join the G8 sooner or later, because its participation can bring the country more advantages than disadvantages," said Zhen Bingxi, a senior research fellow specializing in world economic studies at the Chinese Institute of International Studies (CIIS).

First, with recent changes in the world economic structure, some developing nations now account for larger portions of the global economy, Zhen said. As one of them, and also as the largest of them, China has seen tremendous economic growth in the past years. According to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China has been the third biggest economy in the world since 2007, behind the United States and Japan. The report also said the per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) in China exceeded that of Japan in 2007, based on purchasing power parity (PPP).

Second, China has maintained a rapid pace of development since its opening-up policy was first implemented in the late 1970s, Zhen said. Especially in the last five years, China's annual economic growth rates all have exceeded 10 percent.

"China now is the most powerful engine that is accelerating the world's economic growth," Zhen said. The IMF report, published in late December 2007, reduced its forecast for world economic growth to 4.7 percent from 5.2 percent in October 2007. In the meantime, China's contribution to the global GDP growth rate had reached 27 percent measured according to its PPP, while that of the United States was about 10 percent. By measuring economic growth according to the current exchange rate,

China's contribution to the global GDP growth rate was more than 20 percent, while that of the United States was 14 to 15 percent.

Third, joining the G8 could help China to better cooperate with the industrialized nations when dealing with global issues, such as climate change, environment protection and saving energy, Zhen said. In the meantime, China's role as the largest developing country in the world will enable other developing countries to have more chances to express their opinions while mapping out the game rules for establishing a new global economic order, he said.

Fourth, China's micro-adjustment and control policies on the economy and financing are influencing the world significantly by coordinating the global economy, Zhen said. The World Bank also has said the coordination of exchange rates would not be complete and thorough without China's involvement. Only with the country's participation, could decisions on the exchange rate adjustments make sense.

Lin Limin, a scholar at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), said that the invitation for China to join the G8 reflects the

country's improved status in the world. But he also pointed out that the G8 was caught in a dilemma, because it could no longer represent the world economy and needed China's participation to improve its legal and representative stances. China's involvement would be significant to settling the global problems the G8 members face, he said.

Ever vigilant

Both Zhen and Lin noted that although the advantages of joining the G8 sounded very attractive, China should be cautious in deciding whether to join or not, especially when the timing is not perfect now.

Chen Fengying, Director of the World Economics Studies Center at the CICIR, said in the monthly magazine China Development Observer that while China's economic influence continues to rising, the country also faces bigger risks in five areas. First, its foreign exchange reserves are now very high, because of its trade surplus and the amount of foreign capital that is flowing into the country. This means that China must be careful about an external imbalance. Second, China is under much pressure from Europe and the United States to let its currency appreciate. Third, trade disputes between China and other industrialized nations occur frequently, so that China must deal with more product safety and technological barriers. Fourth, while the internationalization of global financial systems is picking up speed, China has to face risks related to internal and external financing. Fifth, China has come under increasing fire from industrialized countries over its responsibility for emitting greenhouse gases that cause global warming.

Zhen from the CIIS said in spite of the economic issues, China must also consider related political pressure before it agrees to join the G8.

"Not all G8 members hope that China joins the circle, especially Japan and the United States," he said. Under such circumstances, those who oppose China's involvement will set higher thresholds for the country on human rights, environment protection and even ideology, he said.

Previously, Bonnie Glaser at the Washington D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out that the current G8 members are all "democratic countries," and that China as a socialist market economy does not fit this standard. Glaser believes that the Western countries might push China to change some of its political policies when they invite the country to join the G8.

"If China is eager to join the G8, its political and economic interests might be hurt," Zhen said, adding that China needs to think over the following four questions before it makes a final decision: Does it possess the necessary economic conditions to become a G8 member? Is it the perfect timing? How will China coordinate its relations with the group's other members? And will it be able to shoulder all those responsibilities that G8 membership entails?

Zhen stressed that based on these considerations, it would be safer for China to join the G8 in one or two years. The current 8+5 mode, which includes the current eight members plus China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico as summit participants, is more suitable for China, he said.

Zhen pointed out that there are several plans under discussion for expanding the G8. The first is the G9 mode, which consists of the existing G8 members and China. The next is the G13, which includes the current G8 members and China, Brazil, India, Mexico and South Africa. The last is the G3 mode, which involves only China, the EU and the United States.

Zhen said that if China decides to participate, the G13 mode would be the most practical. The G3, which excludes Japan and Russia, is a fairly radical plan and would not be realistic, he said.

"Under the G9 mode, China's voice will be very vague, and the G13 mode can help the developing countries to play bigger roles in the game," Zhen said.

Development of the G8

The G8 is an economic and political organization set up to dialogue and bring about change among the world's most influential countries. It evolved from the original Group of Seven industrialized nations, which was formed in November 1975. At that time, the leaders of six Western countries-Britain, France, Italy, Japan, the United States and former West Germany-held an economic summit in France to discuss the global economic situation and coordinate policies to reinvigorate their economies. In June 1976, Canada joined the group at the G7 Summit, also called the Seven Western Countries Summit Conference, during which the G7 took shape. From then on, the members have held annual economic summits.

In 1997, then Russian President Boris Yeltsin was invited to fully participate in the G7 summit held in Denver, Colorado, and the G8 was formally created.

In 2003, with the rapid development of China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, leaders of the five developing countries were invited to participate in the summit, creating an 8+5 mode.