
The situation in the Middle East grew more intense after Israel closed all its border crossings with the Gaza Strip on January 18 and cut off the Palestinians' crucial supply lines for fuel and food in retaliation for rocket attacks by Hamas militants.
In light of the resurgent violence, some officials and observers argue that Israel's border closures hurt the Palestinian civilians the most. International organizations, worried that a humanitarian crisis might occur, urged Israel to reopen the crossings.
While the current situation in Gaza has dashed the progress made in previous peace talks, there are still prospects for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians, international affairs experts said. Wang Jinglie, Director of the Division of Middle East Studies in the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that despite the ongoing conflicts between the two rivals, their peace talks would continue at some point in the future.
Israel typically shuts its border crossings to cut off power and food supplies as a tactic against Palestine militants in the Gaza Strip, Wang told Beijing Review.
The rocket attacks and border closures came as somewhat of a surprise, considering that the two sides met last December for peace talks initiated by U.S. President George W. Bush. At the end of that meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas agreed to restart their negotiations to bring an end to the conflict. During his visit to the Middle East in early January, Bush rallied the support of other leaders for a regional peace plan.
Wang pointed out that the first reason Israel launched a new round of border closures and supply blockages was to strike at Hamas and discourage its supporters.
The second reason had to do with Israel's domestic political situation, Wang said. Olmert's government is a weak one, in which the prime minister himself does not wield significant influence among the Israeli military, an important element in the country's political configuration. Several of his cabinet members have been involved in scandals, which has further weakened his authority.
Worse still, Olmert damaged his credibility when he ordered an attack on Lebanon in August 2006 to strike at Hezbollah militants in that country, Wang said. Many high-ranking officials, especially on the right, considered the attack a mistake, because Israel did not prepare well for the war.
"The Israeli administration had to do something to satisfy its people, and a blockage against the Gaza Strip turned out to be the solution," Wang said.
The future prospects for a peaceful settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would not change, Wang said. He noted that Israel would always adhere to the two founding principles: It must remain a Jewish nation; it must be a democratic state. But now there are about 4 million Palestinians living in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. If they do not establish a separate Palestinian state, Israel will lose its attribute as a Jewish nation, Wang said.
The Israelis do not wish to continue living in turbulence. An acceptable peaceful solution is also what they want, Wang said.
Such a peace agreement needs preconditions, Wang said. Israel must make some concessions, the United States must change its unconditional support of Israel, and different parties inside Palestine must unite.
"There is no doubt that the Israelis are now in a better position [than the Palestinians], and an agreement can only be reached when the stronger side makes some sacrifices," Wang said.
Bush would likely pay another visit to the Middle East, because he hopes to see a breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process before he leaves office, Wang said. But the scholar added he does not believe this would come easily. While it may be possible for both sides to sign a long-expected peace deal brokered by Bush, it would be hard to implement it efficiently, Wang said.
In recent years, Washington has softened its tone toward the Palestinians. The United States under Bush supported the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. But due to historic reasons and current political and security interests, the close relationship between Israel and the United States would remain the same, Wang said.
Hua Liming, former ambassador to several Middle East countries and an expert on international affairs, is also optimistic about a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But the resurgence of violence in Gaza would make it even more difficult to attain, he added.
"The situation indicates that without Hamas' involvement, the Israel-Palestine problem cannot be completely solved," he told Beijing Review.
Hua noted that the real breakthrough in this war-torn region's peace process must be preconditioned on reconciliation between Hamas and the Abbas-led Fatah movement. Hamas, whose supporters comprise almost half of the Palestinian population, would not accept a peace deal with Israel signed only by Abbas, Hua said. He also said that Abbas' pro-U.S. stance could easily be regarded as a sellout of the Palestinian nation, another factor that does not bode well for a reconciliation of the two Palestinian factions. |