Peace talks between Israel and Palestine during the past several years have not been as crucial as other Middle East issues such as the Iranian nuclear issue and the war in Iraq. During this time, the peace process has not made any progress and the situation in the region has not improved. But in late November, the world was surprised to see Israeli and Palestinian leaders meeting in Annapolis, Maryland, to once again try to reach an agreement on resolving their decades-long dispute.

The negotiations were the first formal and direct talks as well as the largest ones that involved the most countries, regions and organizations since the Camp David talks held in the United States in July 2000. In addition to Israel and Palestine, nearly 50 countries--including China the United States--regions and international organizations attended the one-day peace conference. Chinese foreign affairs experts believe that although the conference can be considered a good start to another round of peace talks, it still will not be easy for the Arabs and Israelis to achieve lasting peace.

The highlight of the conference was a memorandum of understanding signed by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian National Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. In it, the two leaders agreed that peace is the only choice for both sides, showing strong resolve to ending their conflict that has lasted for decades and killed countless innocent civilians. Moreover, they announced that the two sides would begin a series of negotiations on their territories, the ownership of Jerusalem and the return of Palestinian refugees. The two sides also set a plan for further negotiations to try to reach a peaceful agreement by the end of 2008. Olmert and Abbas decided to hold regular summits as well to resolve related issues during the negotiation process.

A gap remains

As host of the Annapolis conference, U.S. President George W. Bush seemed to be satisfied with the outcome and said it had settled all the key problems of the Middle East peace talks. However, Chinese foreign affairs experts are not as optimistic. They question Bush's sincerity about the peace talks. Unlike his predecessor Bill Clinton who hosted the 2000 Camp David talks, Bush focused more on the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Iranian nuclear issue.

"Bush is going to finish his presidency very soon. He has few diplomatic achievement that he can be proud of," said Liu Yueqin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "In this regard, making some progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks is a breakthrough." If Bush only considered the Annapolis peace conference as a token of his time in office, then this attitude would not help the peace talks, she added.

Although the two sides signed the memorandum of understanding, the agreement did not touch any of the three most important problems: how to plot the borderline between the Israelis and the Palestinians, how to decide who get control of Jerusalem, and how the Palestinian refugees will be returned to Palestine.

"It is impossible to settle all three problem within one year," Liu said. For example, Jerusalem is not only a territory problem. As the holy land of Islam, Judaism and Christianity, Jerusalem is a very sensitive place. Therefore, neither Olmert nor Abbas will be hard-pressed to give in on this issue during related talks in order to avoid angering their people.

Another problem is related to the civil situations on both sides, Liu said. Palestine is divided into two camps of extremists and moderates. In Palestine, the extremist Fatah controls the West Bank, while the moderate Hamas has the Gaza City. They both have set up separate political administrations, which could engender civil war in the country. The two parties might not reach a consensus on peace talks with the Israelis, Liu said. Even if Israel signed an agreement with Abbas-led Fatah, Hamas and its supporters would not accept and implement it, she added.

Israel has a similar problem. Since Olmert is undergoing treatment for cancer, he might quit his post early. "At that time, it is quite possible that a hardliner will take Olmert's post and then shut the door to peace talks," Liu said.

Tang Jizan, a researcher from the Center for World Affairs at Xinhua News Agency, pointed out that the United States is one of the most important parties to the peace talks.

"Without Washington's pressure, Israel will not make any painful concessions during bilateral negotiations," he wrote in a Xinhua News Agency report. But with the U.S. presidential election next year, neither the Republicans nor Democrats will dare offend influential American Jewish groups on the peace talks, he wrote.

Although the peace talks include other Arab countries, such as Syria, their positions on the issue are different. Syria's main goal is to get back the Golan Heights. "The Arab countries should get more consensus on the peace talks," Liu said.

The region's future

Although Chinese foreign affairs analysts believe there is a long way to go before peace is finalized, the Annapolis conference can be considered a good way to restart the peace talks.

"Both the Israelis and the Palestinians are serious about this peace conference, and they reached some understanding, such as peace being the only way to solve the conflict and laying plans for the following steps," Tang said.

Liu agreed that the peace conference set up a means for future negotiations, which is the foundation of bilateral interaction between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

"To realize final peace, Israel inevitably has to compromise," she said. "Such a choice is very painful, but the country will cease bleeding."

When Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni visited China in late October, she stressed that the Israeli Government would cooperate with Arab moderates to make progress on the road to the peace talks. When speaking about the role of the Arabs in the talks, she said that the whole Arab world would be influential in this matter and that the Palestinians should remember that they have suffered from the conflict every day. Livni's comments showed that Israel would not possibly satisfy every Arab country during the negotiations. The top issue for the Palestinians is to ameliorate the relations between the two camps and reach a consensus. Otherwise, the situation will get worse. Foreign affairs analysts also agree that although other countries are playing important roles in this issue, the Israelis and the Palestinians should make crucial decisions by themselves.

Representing China, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi attended the Annapolis conference. He said the conference was a historical step toward achieving the peaceful coexistence of the Arab and Israeli nations. China would stick to its stance of playing a constructive role during the peace talks in the Middle East, he said. Yang also promised that the Chinese Government would offer more assistance to the Palestinians, so as to promote the peace process and help the Palestinian people.

"Only patience, dialogue and necessary compromise can beat swords into plowshares and make peace," he said at the conference. Only Palestinian unity can make the dream of peace come true, he said.

China's Stance Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi listed China's five principles on the Middle East peace process on November 27 at the Annapolis peace conference, stressing that China is ready to support the following activities. · Israel and Palestine should respect each other's history and consider each other's concerns, so as keep the peace talks on the right track. They must make major and realistic moves to catch up with the times and resolve their disputes over boundaries, refugees and water resources. An independent Palestinian state must be set up based on the Roadmap for Peace and the Arab Peace Initiative. · The two parties should stop the violence and prevent the political obstruction of the peace talks, as well as stick to their promises of holding future peace talks. They must remember that force cannot bring about durable peace. · Parties concerned should create an environment to promote the peace talks, which should be held in an all-round and balanced way. Therefore, Peace talks between Israel and Syria and those between Israel and Lebanon should be resumed. · Development and cooperation should be encouraged to solidify the foundation for the peace talks. The international community should boost its economic ties with and humanitarian assistance to the Middle East and help it share the benefits of peace. · The international community should cooperate to set a broad-based, balanced and effective multilateral mechanism to support the peace talks. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)