Given these facts, Howard's intentions are self-evident. In fact, Howard took another major step on the aboriginal issue earlier this year. In June, the government of Northern Territory released a report titled "Little Children Are Sacred." The report, which lists a large number of cases of abuses against indigenous children, stirred the Australian Government and civil society. The Howard government announced a "national emergency" plan in Northern Territory on June 21. It also introduced a controversial intervention policy through legislation, under which troops, police forces and physicians would be sent to North Territory to protect the children. The media pointed out that social problems have long existed in Australia's indigenous communities and said Howard's high-profile move was merely an attempt to foster an image of a strong leader and win voters' support.

Howard's popularity ratings have been lower than those of his rival Kevin Rudd since Rudd became leader of the Australian Labor Party last December. However, Howard is said to be good at winning elections. He won a new term in 2001 when he regained public support with his handling of the Tampa Incident, in which the Australian Government refused the entry of Afghan refugees rescued by Norwegian cargo ship the MV Tampa from a distressed fishing vessel in international waters near Australia's Christmas Island. Three years later, he reversed his unfavorable electoral situation using the antiterrorism issue.

To date, Howard's recent moves have not borne much fruit. The indigenous people neither trust nor are grateful for these measures. The government's intervention in Northern Territory seems to have disturbed the indigenous communities rather than being welcomed by them. Not long ago, more indigenous communities sued the government for its intervention. If they win the case, the intervention plan will have to be stopped. As for the proposed reconciliation referendum, indigenous Australians believe that reconciliation is necessary but the government should, most importantly, make a formal apology to them before real reconciliation is achieved.

Many people believe Howard should have held a reconciliation referendum during his premiership. Legal affairs experts have said that incorporating the statement of reconciliation into the preamble of the Constitution instead of its main body would not prompt the amendment of relevant laws, and is therefore only symbolic.

A chance or a risk?

The Labor Party, nevertheless, responded appropriately. It immediately showed support for Howard's proposal for a reconciliation referendum. The Labor Party has clear-cut policies on the aboriginal issue. In its platform, the party vows to promote reconciliation and social justice and recognize the fact that the indigenous people first established nations in Australia. It also has pledged to sign the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and persist in carrying out the policy of indigenous self-determination.

As a matter of fact, the aboriginal issue is an area where the Labor Party has an advantage. Labor prime ministers Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke and Paul Keating all performed well in this regard. The voters tend to give the Labor Party more credit, and Howard's Liberal Party can hardly compete with its rival on this front. That's why some critics have said Howard might be working for Rudd.

However, it should not be concluded that Howard is bound to fail in this area. Australia has been unable to resolve the aboriginal issue completely ever since Captain Arthur Phillip, who set up the first European colony on the Australian continent, landed at the Sydney Cove 220 years ago. The Australian Government has sought to tackle the long-term dilemma according to the principle of reconciliation. Despite all the criticism it has drawn, the Howard government has not abandoned this principle.

At present, reconciliation reflects mainstream public opinion, with all political parties supposedly dedicated to promoting reconciliation. Apology is quite another matter. Many non-indigenous Australians believe that they should not be responsible for the injustices their ancestors committed against indigenous people.

It should also be noted that indigenous Australians, numbering about 500,000, account for only 2.5 percent of Australia's total population, and therefore may not have much impact on the federal election. As a national concern, however, the aboriginal issue has drawn close attention from voters. That's exactly the reason why Australian political forces all attach great importance to the issue. What matters to them is not how to resolve the issue, but how to gain the support of non-indigenous voters.

Howard's shift was well maneuvered. He bravely admitted that he was wrong by saying that "symbolic reconciliation" is as important as "practical reconciliation." In this way, he has satisfied the demands of the voters against his original policy. At the same time, he hopes his former supporters continue to back him, because his vision of "practical reconciliation" remains unchanged.

The author is an assistant research fellow at the China National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation

(The viewpoint of the article does not necessarily represent that of Beijing Review)