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Business
Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: November 1, 2007 NO.45 NOV.8, 2007
All Systems Slow
After an extended period of rapid development, the Chinese economy shows signs of a welcome cooling trend
By LAN XINZHEN
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Upgrading of consumption structure and the formation of new consumption attractions also helped promote growth of consumption. From January to September, retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas kept rapid growth. Sales of automobiles, furniture and interior decoration materials increased 38.1 percent, 38.7 percent and 40.3 percent respectively.

"We can expect that consumption will remain robust as a series of measures are implemented to improve people's livelihood," said Li. "The income distribution structure is being continuously adjusted, and income of residents, especially that of low-income groups, is continuously increasing. Together with the improvement of various social security systems and the continuous upgrading of consumption attractions, it is expected that overall consumption will maintain rapid growth, and the consumption of residents, in particular, will keep a fairly high increase rate and become an important factor driving economic growth."

High entrepreneur confidence

According to data from a survey of over 19,500 enterprises of various types, released by the NBS on October 10, the entrepreneur confidence index (ECI) reached 143 points in the third quarter, equalling that in the second quarter and surpassing that in the same period last year.

The survey showed that 50.1 percent of entrepreneurs were optimistic about overall operations, while 42.7 percent saw little change in their outlook.

The ECIs of many industries remained steady in the third quarter. ECIs for the mining industry, electricity, gas and water production and supply industries, wholesale and retail sectors, information transmission, computer service and software industries, and lodging and catering industries respectively reached 162, 144.2, 145.2, 158.4 and 136, generally maintaining the level of the second quarter. The ECIs for the construction industry, the transport, storage and postal service industry, the real estate industry and the social service industry were 142.1, 142.2, 146.6 and 141, respectively, representing a rise of 1.7, 3.7, 1.1 and 4.2 points. The ECI for manufacturing stood at 140.5, slightly lower than the previous quarter. Compared with the same period of last year, ECIs for other industries all showed increases by different degrees.

The ECIs of collectively owned enterprises, shareholding cooperative enterprises, private enterprises, and enterprises funded by overseas investors and investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan were respectively 118.2, 125.3, 137.3 and 147.1, rising by 1.1, 2.9, 2.7 and 1.1 points. The ECI of limited liability enterprises held steady at 141.5. The figures for state-owned enterprises and limited shareholding corporations were 142.2 and 152.9 respectively, slightly lower than the figures in the previous quarter.

The survey also showed that the ECIs of large, small and medium-sized enterprises held steady at 160.5, 133.5 and 124.5 respectively, generally equalling the level of the second quarter, and exceeding the level of the same period last year.

Fast trade growth

According to figures of the General Administration of Customs, in the first three quarters, the volume of imports and exports amounted to $1.57 trillion, up 23.5 percent over a year ago.

During the January-September period, China exported $878.24 billion worth of goods, a year-on-year increase of 27.1 percent, 0.6 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Since June, exports have surpassed $100 billion every month. In the first nine months, imports were valued at $692.59 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.1 percent and a decline of 2.6 percentage points in terms of growth rate.

The mix of commodities exported by China continues to improve, with exports of machinery, electrical and hi-tech products growing rapidly. In the first three quarters, exports of machinery and electrical products were valued at $497.23 billion and those of hi-tech products stood at $244.28 billion, increasing 28 percent and 24.8 percent, respectively, year on year.

China has continued to perfect its policies on the processing trade, enlarging the scope of restrictive and forbidden commodities, and slowing down the growth in the processing trade. In the first three quarters, processing exports totaled $440.01 billion, showing a year-on-year rise of 21.5 percent and a decline of 1.9 percentage points in terms of the growth rate. At the same time, imports of the processing trade amounted to $266.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.9 percent, and a drop of 5.7 percentage points in growth rate.

Liu Haiquan, Deputy Director of the Comprehensive Department of the Ministry of Commerce, says that in the last two years, the Chinese Government has adopted a series of measures to adjust its export structure and curb the rapid growth of its trade surplus, which has achieved some effects. In August and September, the growth rate of trade surplus came down. However, since the root causes for China's trade surplus lie in international industrial transfers, high demand of the international market and improved competitiveness of Chinese export commodities, the excessive trade surplus has not been effectively relieved. In the first three quarters, China's trade surplus surged to $185.65 billion, against $177.46 billion for the whole of last year.

 

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