Recent events involving Iran have produced high drama. First, the country said it would cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the nuclear issue, reversing its previous stance. Later it detained 15 British military personnel for nearly two weeks and then released them. And just when it appeared that Iran had taken a more cooperative approach, Tehran announced that it had upgraded its uranium processing to an industrial scale.

On April 4, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would pardon and release the 15 detained British sailors and marines as an Easter holiday "gift to the British people." The captives, who were seized while on patrol in the Gulf on March 23, had been accused of entering Iranian waters.

Nearly one week after Iran's "friendly action," at a ceremony at the country's nuclear facility in Natanz on April 9, Ahmadinejad said that the country had entered the "industrial level" stage of nuclear fuel production, in defiance of a key UN resolution demanding that it halt all enrichment work. He also named April 9 the country's first "National Day of Nuclear Technology," underlining that the world powers cannot stop Iran's nuclear drive from making progress.

"Enemies have used the UN Security Council as a tool to block Iran's progress. From today, Iran is among the producers of nuclear fuel at an industrial level in the world," Ahmadinejad said, adding that "the great Iranian nation will never allow the bullying powers to put obstacles in its path of progress by influencing the international community."

On April 15, Ahmad Fayyaz-Bakhs, Deputy Chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, declared that Iran would issue tenders for the construction of two new nuclear power plants in the southern city of Bushehr with a capacity of 1,000 to 1,600 megawatts of electricity each. And he added that Russian and some European companies have expressed a willingness to take part in the tenders.

Hong Yuan, a researcher from the Center for Arms Control & Nonproliferation Studies of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, concluded that Iran's capricious behavior has posed a diplomatic dilemma.

"Iran's situation is dangerous and difficult-it has no ally or powerful supporter on the nuclear issue," Hong told Beijing Review.

Confusing diplomacy

Hong explained the reason why Iran released the British sailors as follows: first, the release was a tactic to ease the tense situation after Iran detained the military personnel; second, it was a tactic to disintegrate the common stance of Britain and the United States toward the Iranian nuclear issue; and third, Iran intended to show friendliness to the European Union, which plays a decisive role in determining the future of the Iranian nuclear issue.

Regarding Iran's announcement of its nuclear capability, Hong said, "Information showed that Iran only had about 3,000 centrifuges. Normally, to reach an industrial nuclear capability, a country must have at least 10,000 centrifuges. Then the country can extract enough enriched uranium that is qualified to create nuclear weapons." But he added that it was possible that Iran had obtained enriched uranium through the black market.

The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1747 in late March, urging Iran to suspend uranium enrichment work "without further delay," or face more severe sanctions. But Iran insisted that its nuclear research is aimed at peaceful use, and it presented itself as willing to cooperate with the IAEA, making it difficult for the UN Security Council to impose further sanctions.

Meanwhile, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said Iran planned to install 50,000 centrifuges. "When we say we have entered industrial scale enrichment, [it means] there is no way back. The installation of centrifuges will continue steadily to reach a stage where all the 50,000 centrifuges are launched," he said.

The IAEA predicted that Iran would have the capacity to build its own nuclear bomb in just four to six years, but Iran has refused to heed the Security Council's demands, insisting that its nuclear programs are for peaceful purposes only.

Currently, most experts are still optimistic that no military action will be taken against Iran to make it comply with the demand of the UN Security Council. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said on April 15 in Amman, Jordan, that there is no immediate danger of military action against Iran, though he was not "100 percent" sure this would not happen. He said the issue of military action must be taken to the UN Security Council after all diplomatic efforts were exhausted, adding that there was still "enough time" for talks.

The United States said on April 9 that it hoped to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue diplomatically and it would gradually increase the diplomatic pressure on Tehran.

Outlook for military action

According to experts from the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies, there are five reasons that America will not attack Iran: the U.S. Army is occupied with Iraq and will find it difficult to open another theater of war; the United States is concerned about a Viet Nam War-like situation; President George W. Bush is concerned about his historical image and does not want to be primarily seen as a president who launched a series of wars; military action in Iran may cause social and political upheavals that could provide a haven for terrorists; and an attack on Iran would damage the democratic process in neighboring Iraq.

Most Chinese observers also generally believe that the United States is deeply bogged down in the quagmire of Iraq and Washington is not in the position to launch a full-scale war against Tehran.

But Hong had a different perspective on Iran's future. "Sooner or later, America will strike Iran, and most likely the strike will be air attack," he told Beijing Review. "If Iran sticks to its tough stance, the only way for Iran to avoid a U.S. attack is by testing nuclear bombs successfully, because then it will have the power to negotiate."

There were several reasons for the United States to finally launch a war on Iran, Hong explained.

The first is that Iran is the last of the three countries Bush once dubbed an "axis of evil" that is maintaining its hard-line stance. Since the other two, Iraq and North Korea, have either been conquered or are cooperating with the international community through communication and negotiation, the United States must "settle down" the Iranian issue, he said.

The second is that if the U.S. Govern-ment shows weakness on the Iranian nuclear issue, it will be powerless in dealing with similar problems in the future-no one will take America's warnings seriously any more.

And third, the Bush administration is a government of realists and it will not accept a losing situation. In addition, its credibility on nonproliferation will be damaged. If its poor image affects the U.S. dollar and investment in U.S. treasury securities, the country's financial foundation will be damaged, Hong said.

He predicted that the United States would likely dispatch at least 10,000 airplanes to carry out an air attack. Since Iran's nuclear equipment would be the major target, the release of nuclear radiation would be quite harmful.

A military strike could have a significant impact on the world economy as well. According to a Russian expert, the price of oil could jump to $150-$200 per barrel. Since Russia itself has abundant oil reserves, it would not feel much of an economic impact. However, Hong forecast that if the United States were successful in an attack, its influence would penetrate into Central Asia, which would be unacceptable to Russia. Therefore, Russia will not support any possible U.S. military action.

Regarding China's stance on the nuclear issue, Pang Sen, Chairman of the Executive Committee of the World Federation of United Nations Associations and Vice President and Director General of the United Nations Association of China, told Beijing Review that the country's attitude can be summarized in two points.

First, China is firmly against any attempt to proliferate weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons. Second, China hopes that the Iranian nuclear issue can be resolved through peaceful and diplomatic negotiations, as China wants to see no further turbulence in the Middle East.