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Business
Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: March 9, 2007 NO.11 MAR.15, 2007
Crash Course for Stock Market
China is exhibiting early signs of a maturing stock market, with all of the bubbles and global influence that a reputable exchange should harbor
By LIU YUNYUN
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Further, the influence of the stock market on Chinese economic development has so far been trifling. During the dismal bearish period from 2001 to 2005, China's GDP growth surpassed 10 percent annually.

Chinese people are good at saving money. Even though the stock market has stolen some of their deposits, the deposit ratio of Chinese people was still one of the highest--51 percent--in 2006, three times the world average, according to Xinhua News Agency. Although the bullish 2006 market awakened some people to the brand new investment field, there are still more who would rather save than invest.

Tang Qifeng, a veteran stock market observer, pointed out that two major conferences--the Fifth Plenary Session of the 10th National People's Congress (NPC) and the Fifth Session of the 10th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held from March 3 to 16--traditionally caused volatility in the market.

"During my 10 years of observation, whenever such meetings take place, the stock market will either surge or plummet, due to policy expectations," Tang said.

Where there is a stock market, there is potential for a bubble.

"The nature of the stock market means it must have bubbles in it," said Cheng Siwei, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the NPC. "As is known to all, people tend to buy at a low price and sell at a higher price for arbitrage. Stock markets are full of speculation."

As China loosened control over the stock market, the 2006 bull market was partly led by the IPOs of some blue chips like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Life Insurance. "The seemingly prosperous yuan-denominated A share market was shored up by some blue chips, but not by the overall performance improvement of all listed companies," Cheng Siwei said in early February.

As for the Black Tuesday event, Cheng said it was an inner correction of the stock market and that bubbles shrank but still exist.

China matters, but not a lot

China's stock market's impact on the world is still very small. Facts can speak for themselves. On February 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose robustly but didn't have a global impact as the major markets in the world remained reddish.

Currently, the total market value of the two Chinese stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen is no more than 3 percent of that of the New York Stock Exchange.

On March 5, Shang Fulin, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out, "China's stock market right now is relatively small and not very globalized. So it's impossible for it to have such an impact (on the world stock market performance)."

Shang added, "Markets in different countries are mainly influenced by their own domestic conditions and will influence each other according to the globalization degree of their market."

Xu Jianqiang, analyst from CITIC Securities, pointed out the Black Tuesday fall was really just a normal day of fluctuation, though a little bit different in terms of sharpness.

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