It is a well-known phenomenon that the use of nuclear weapons is considered taboo. In line with the doctrine of mutual assured destruction, the use of nuclear weapons in war is almost unimaginable. The utilization of nuclear weapons is therefore almost entirely limited to the role of deterrence. What about the taboo of space weapons? More and more specialists are looking at the impact of space debris that results from the use of space weapons.

Large amounts of space debris caused by space weapons will invariably threaten the space assets of all space-faring countries, not just the intended target countries. Any attack by one country against another using space weapons will result in many losers. With so much of commercial, scientific and military activity increasingly reliant on space, there exists a considerable and growing taboo against using space weapons in a situation of conflict. Thus, under the conditions of American strategic dominance in space, reliable deterrents in space will decrease the possibility of the United States attacking space assets.

At a fundamental level, space weapons---like nuclear weapons---will not alter the essential nature of war. Throughout history, much ink has been spilled over new weapons that have the unique power and ability to change the underlying quality of war. For example, military theorists once exaggerated the tank's role in deciding the outcome of World War I. The atom bomb itself is probably the most salient example, as many analysts and politicians described the weapon as the unique ultimate weapon. But this was a fundamental misunderstanding of war and its implements. Nuclear weapons crossed a threshold in terms of their immense capacity for destruction. But deterrence, mutual assured destruction and the nuclear taboo evolved to consign the use of nuclear weapons to a near impossibility, negating their utility as a tool of fighting. Weapons to change the nature of war have not emerged in the past and will not emerge in the future. As such, space weapons will not be the ultimate weapons nor will they be able to decide the outcome of war, even if they are used as a first strike.

Space weapons and their use are unique from other types of weapons, whether nuclear or terrestrial conventional weapons. Although there will be a taboo on the use of space weapons, the threshold of their use will be lower than that of nuclear weapons because of their conventional characteristics. Space debris may threaten the space assets of other "third party" countries, but the level of destruction, especially in terms of human life, could be far less than from nuclear weapons or potentially even conventional weapons. Therefore, the threshold of force capability required to launch an effective deterrent will inevitably be higher than for nuclear weapons. This unique nature of space weapons will affect the determination of the quantity and technical level of deterrent capability in space.

Hedging for peace in space

In basic terms, strategic deterrence theory demands that three basic conditions be met to be effective. They are the possession of an adequate deterrent force; the will to use the deterrent force; and clear communication of both the possession and the determination to use the deterrent force against an adversary. Neither the United States nor any other nation should be led into thinking that China does not have the ability to acquire a fully effective deterrent in space or the determination to use it in its own defense.

Despite the need for an effective deterrent to meet security challenges that China may confront in space, it will not initiate a space weapons race with the United States or any other country.

First, China does not have the ambition to enter a space weapons race. During the Cold War, faced with a threat of nuclear war, China did not join in the nuclear weapons race between the United States and the former Soviet Union. Today, China's space program is pointed in the direction of peaceful development. The new political and diplomatic doctrines---a harmonious society and world---also curb China's entry into a space weapons race.

Second, China does not have the ability to enter a space weapons race. Although China has ambitious plans in space, the technical gap, especially in the military area, vis-à-vis the United States is difficult if not impossible to fill. China will not and cannot expend significant budgetary resources pursuing space weapons, but will instead focus on civilian and commercial space assets. So, if China owns space weapons, their number and quality will be limited in their capacity to act as an effective defense mechanism and will not be a threat to other countries. China has every interest in avoiding triggering a confrontation in outer space and it will never be a deliberate choice for China. Equally important, however, is that China will not shrink from defending its core national interests.

The author is a senior researcher of the Institute for Military Thought Studies, Academy of Military Sciences of the People's Liberation Army of China